TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$132,305,954
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
↓ $4.00
- Polymarket
↓ $4.00 - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from published analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time signals—supply announcements, cloud-provider pricing moves, and demand shifts—that traditional research reports may lag. While equity analysts and consulting firms typically issue quarterly or annual outlooks, prediction markets update continuously as new information arrives. Comparing the current odds here to recent analyst consensus can reveal whether the market is pricing in more optimism or caution about H200 rental economics than the research community has publicly stated.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts order flow into real-time odds for each outcome bucket. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares corresponding to their view of where H200 rental rates will land, and the cumulative trading activity determines the displayed probability for each price tier. Wider spreads between bid and ask prices typically signal lower confidence or thinner liquidity around that particular outcome.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, at which point the final H200 rental price will be verified against credible public sources to determine the winning outcome. The resolution process compares actual market rates from major cloud providers and GPU-rental platforms to the predefined price brackets in the market. Once the outcome is confirmed, traders holding shares in the correct bracket receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless.
Major catalysts include NVIDIA's H200 production ramp and availability announcements, competitive GPU launches from AMD or other vendors, cloud-provider pricing changes, and macroeconomic shifts affecting AI infrastructure spending. Geopolitical export restrictions, data-center buildout timelines, and shifts in large-language-model training demand could all reshape expectations for rental rates. Quarterly earnings calls from major cloud operators and industry conferences often trigger repricing as traders reassess supply-demand balance heading into year-end 2026.
