TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$132,305,954
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$1.00/MTok or below
- Kalshi
$1.00/MTok or below - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Commodities
Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $1.00/MTok in 2026?
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Description
This event forecasts whether Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash API input token pricing will reach various price thresholds during 2026. The resolution is based on the standard paid-tier pricing displayed on Google's official API pricing page.
Kalshi
Resolution uses the Input Token Price (Paid Tier) for Google Gemini 3.5 Flash listed on the official Google AI pricing page in 2026, measured in USD per million tokens. Only standard listed API pricing applies; promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing is excluded. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product determines the price. If the pricing page is unavailable at expiration, the last available published price from 2026 is used. If no price data exists by the expiration date, the last available price for the product in 2026 applies. If no prior value is available, all outcomes resolve to No. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with Yes if the price is at or below that threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money incentives that often differ from traditional analyst estimates. While research firms may publish static price targets for AI API costs, traders betting on how low will the google gemini 3.5 flash input token price get in 2026 incorporate live data on Google's competitive positioning, cloud pricing trends, and demand signals. Markets tend to update faster than published reports and aggregate dispersed knowledge from participants with direct industry exposure. Comparing market-implied probabilities to published analyst views can reveal where consensus may be overconfident or undervalued.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market on how low will the google gemini 3.5 flash input token price get in 2026 is priced through a continuous limit-order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price threshold outcome. The bid-ask spread reflects uncertainty and liquidity; tighter spreads indicate higher confidence and trading activity, while wider spreads suggest lower conviction. Prices move as new orders flow in, allowing you to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes on Jan 1, 2027.
This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome is determined by the lowest price point reached by Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input tokens during the specified period. Resolution relies on verified pricing data from official Google Cloud sources to establish which price tier was achieved at minimum.
Major catalysts include Google's official pricing announcements, competitive moves by OpenAI or Anthropic that pressure token costs downward, shifts in cloud infrastructure demand, and macroeconomic factors affecting AI investment. Product launches, regulatory changes affecting AI services, and quarterly earnings calls from Alphabet often trigger repricing. Technical improvements that reduce inference costs or strategic bundling decisions could also influence how low will the google gemini 3.5 flash input token price get in 2026. Monitor industry news and Google's developer communications for early signals.
