TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$132,305,954
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$15/MTok or below
- Kalshi
$15/MTok or below - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Commodities
Will Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $15/MTok in 2026?
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Description
This event tracks whether the standard API pricing for Claude Opus 4.8 output tokens will decline to various price thresholds during 2026. As AI models become more efficient and competition intensifies, API pricing often decreases over time, and this market measures the extent of potential price reductions for Anthropic's flagship model.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the standard listed Output Token Price for Claude Opus 4.8 displayed on Anthropic's official API pricing page (https://claude.com/pricing#api) at any point during 2026. The event resolves separately for each price threshold ($20, $15, $10, and $5 per million tokens), with each threshold resolving to Yes if the price reaches or falls below that level. Prices are measured in USD per million tokens and must reflect the standard published API rate, excluding any promotional, temporary, or volume-based discounts. If the product is renamed or succeeded by a successor model, the closest equivalent product will be used for pricing determination. Should the pricing page be unavailable at expiration, the last available published price from 2026 will be used. If no pricing data exists for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026, all thresholds resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives that often diverge from analyst forecasts. While traditional AI researchers and industry analysts may publish price projections based on historical trends and competitive dynamics, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders betting actual capital on outcomes. Analyst forecasts tend to be more conservative or speculative, whereas market odds incorporate continuous updates from participants responding to earnings reports, product announcements, and shifts in AI infrastructure costs. The two sources often converge over time as new data becomes available.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different price thresholds for Claude Opus 4.8 output tokens by year-end 2026. Each contract reflects a specific price range, and the current market price of each contract indicates the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring. As new information surfaces—such as Anthropic's quarterly updates, competitor pricing moves, or shifts in compute costs—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to fluctuate in real time.
This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome is determined by the actual Claude Opus 4.8 output token price published by Anthropic at that time. Traders are betting on how low that official price will have fallen relative to current levels. Resolution hinges on verified pricing data from Anthropic's public API or pricing page, ensuring all participants reference the same authoritative source when the market settles.
Several catalysts could shift market odds significantly. Anthropic's quarterly earnings reports and product announcements directly signal pricing intentions. Competitive moves by OpenAI, Google, or other AI labs may pressure Anthropic to lower costs. Broader trends in GPU availability and compute infrastructure costs affect the economics of token pricing. Regulatory developments around AI pricing transparency could also influence outcomes. Additionally, major breakthroughs in model efficiency or shifts in enterprise demand for Claude services may prompt Anthropic to adjust pricing strategy before the end of 2026.
