TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$141,844,315

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,993,399

484,032

Markets across

35,818

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,360

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How low will Lake Powell drop?
polymarket

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Aug 17, 2026, 5:49 PM EST - Apr 15, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$90,371
Volume 24h:
$21,141
39,255%
Liquidity:
$19,845
51%
Open interest:
$10,629N/A

Above 3,510 ft

 - Polymarket

Above 3,510 ft - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Apr 15, 2027

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 7% 170 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Above 3,510 ft

Trade
97%
11%
Yes 97¢No 3.2¢
0.2¢
$2,877
$40,517
63%
81%
N/A
5mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

3,500–3,510 ft

3%
Yes 3.4¢No 97¢
0.4¢
$8,717
$39,172
12%
50%
N/A
5mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

3,490–3,500 ft

1%
1%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$4,123
$5,647
12%
20%
N/A
5mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

Below 3,490 ft

1%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$4,129
$5,034
18%
29%
N/A
5mo 2w 6d
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Polymarket

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Lake Powell water level market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this prediction. It shows how traders view the likelihood of different water level outcomes, along with 24-hour volume of $21,141. This view lets you monitor sentiment and activity centered around the Lake Powell water level market.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, crowd-sourced outlook. Analysts may incorporate long-term climate models and reservoir management plans, while traders on Polymarket react quickly to news, weather patterns, and policy updates. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably from traditional forecasts, especially during periods of rapid change.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling shares that represent possible water level outcomes. The current top outcome has a chance of 96.9%, and the market’s volume sits at $90,371. Prices shift based on new trading activity and evolving expectations for reservoir levels.

This market resolves around Apr 16, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final water level measurement will be compared against the listed options to determine the winning outcome, reflecting real-world conditions at that point in time.