TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$131,483,547
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,200,781,395
338,101
Markets across
34,156
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,657
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
November 30
- Polymarket
November 30 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
GTA VI released by November 30?
$
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst estimates. While industry analysts and gaming journalists may publish release-window speculation based on interviews and development timelines, the market price aggregates thousands of independent bets and updates instantly when new information emerges. Prediction markets tend to be more responsive to breaking news—such as official Rockstar statements or leaked development footage—than analyst reports. Comparing the current market probability to published expert forecasts reveals whether traders are more bullish or bearish on a pre-November 2026 launch than the consensus view.
On Polymarket, GTA VI released before November 2026 is priced as a binary outcome contract, with traders buying YES or NO shares. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market's collective estimate of release probability, displayed as a percentage. As traders place orders, the price adjusts in real time; higher demand for YES shares drives the price up, signaling stronger confidence in a pre-November 2026 release. The spread between bid and ask prices indicates liquidity and trader uncertainty. Volume and open interest show how actively the contract is being traded and how much capital is at stake.
The market resolves on Nov 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined based on whether Rockstar Games has officially released Grand Theft Auto VI to the public before that date. Resolution hinges on an official launch announcement and availability; pre-release builds, beta tests, or developer previews do not count. The market will settle YES if GTA VI is commercially available to consumers before the deadline, and NO otherwise. Traders should monitor official Rockstar channels, regulatory filings, and major gaming news outlets for confirmation of the release date.
Key catalysts include official Rockstar announcements of a release date, gameplay trailers, or pre-order availability. Regulatory approvals or delays in major markets could accelerate or postpone launch. Supply-chain disruptions, developer statements about completion timelines, and leaks of internal schedules may shift trader sentiment sharply. Industry events like gaming conferences or earnings calls from Take-Two Interactive (Rockstar's parent company) often trigger repricing. Competitor releases or shifts in gaming trends could also influence expectations. Finally, any credible reporting on development progress or leadership changes at Rockstar may move the market as traders update their probability estimates.
