TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$91,248,924
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,520,955
334,440
Markets across
33,346
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,559
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
December 31
- Polymarket
December 31 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Science and Technology
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?
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Description
This event group tracks the release timeline for xAI's Grok 5 model across multiple prediction markets. The core question is whether the model will be publicly released by specific dates in 2026, with precise definitions around what constitutes a qualifying release.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamental scope divergence between markets: Polymarket tracks xAI's Grok 5 flagship model release timeline, while Kalshi markets track SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 variant release datesHero tip: Treat these as separate bets. Polymarket's Grok 5 markets resolve based on xAI's next-generation model availability, while Kalshi's markets resolve based on SpaceXAI releasing a specific intermediate version. No cross-platform correlation exists.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Tracks xAI's Grok 5 flagship model release to general public by August 15/31 or December 31, 2026. Requires explicit branding as Grok 5 or clear announcement as next flagship generation. Closed beta or task-specialized models don't qualify.
- Kalshi: Tracks SpaceXAI's release of Grok 4.6 variant by specific dates between August 6-10, 2026. Resolves to Yes if released before each respective date. Focuses exclusively on Grok 4.6 intermediate version, not Grok 5.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether SpaceXAI will publicly release the Grok 4.6 AI model by any of five specified dates between August 6, 2026, and August 10, 2026. A valid release must be made available to the public, meaning it cannot remain exclusive to a closed beta program. However, the release may be restricted to a high-cost subscription tier without affecting its validity. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the model is launched before any of the listed dates, with each date acting as a separate but cumulative threshold. All markets share the same secondary rule criteria, ensuring consistency in what qualifies as a public release across all date-based markets.
