TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$132,305,954
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
↓ $2.25
- Polymarket
↓ $2.25 - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.25 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H100 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H100 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they operate on different incentives. Traders in this market face direct financial consequences for incorrect predictions, creating pressure toward accuracy. Analysts, by contrast, may anchor to consensus or publish forecasts with wider confidence intervals. The odds here reflect real money at stake, which typically surfaces tail risks and contrarian views faster than published research. Comparing current market odds to recent analyst reports on GPU pricing and data-center capex can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric opportunities or where expert opinion lags market pricing.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether the H100 rental index will exceed a given price level—is represented as a separate contract, and the combined probability of all outcomes sums to 100 percent. Traders purchase shares of outcomes they believe will occur, and the price per share directly reflects the market's implied probability. Spreads between bid and ask prices tighten as volume increases, rewarding active participation and allowing you to enter or exit positions with minimal slippage.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed against credible public reporting on GPU rental pricing indices. The specific price level or range you are betting on will be verified once the relevant benchmark data is finalized and published. Resolution typically occurs within days of the deadline, allowing traders to settle positions and move capital to new opportunities. Until that point, odds may shift based on new information about chip supply, data-center utilization, or competitive pricing announcements.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before year-end 2026. Major announcements from GPU manufacturers regarding production capacity or next-generation chip launches would reshape demand expectations. Data-center operator earnings calls and capex guidance often reveal rental demand trends. Regulatory changes affecting AI compute access or energy costs could alter pricing dynamics. Competitor product launches or pricing wars in the rental market would directly impact benchmark indices. Macroeconomic shifts affecting enterprise AI spending, interest rates, or cloud infrastructure investment would ripple through this market. Tracking industry conferences, supply-chain reports, and quarterly earnings will help you anticipate directional moves.
