TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$84,940,147
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,022,755
334,261
Markets across
33,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,574
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
November 30, 2026
- Polymarket
November 30, 2026 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Science and Technology
Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether OpenAI will release GPT-6 as a publicly accessible product by the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that GPT-6 will be released by December 31, 2026—stands at 83.5%. Resolution will be determined by official OpenAI announcements and credible reporting, with the requirement that the model be available to the general public, not merely in closed beta or private access. Watch for OpenAI's official product announcements and public availability confirmations as the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaches.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
GPT-6 released by… is priced on Polymarket through outcome contracts representing different release scenarios and organizational possibilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract trades independently, with the top outcome currently trading at 66.0% implied probability. Traders buy and sell shares to express conviction about which organization will release GPT-6 first or whether release will occur by key dates. Prices adjust continuously based on new information, technical announcements, funding news, and competitive developments in the AI sector, allowing real-time discovery of market sentiment around this pivotal event.
The GPT-6 released by… market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution depends on verifiable announcements and credible documentation of GPT-6 release by specific organizations. The market structure tracks both timing and organizational attribution, so outcomes are determined by which entity publicly releases a system meeting GPT-6 specifications and when that release occurs. Traders should monitor official announcements, regulatory filings, and industry publications for definitive release events that trigger market settlement.
Key catalysts for GPT-6 released by… include major AI capability announcements, organizational funding rounds, regulatory approvals or restrictions, competitive product launches, and technical breakthroughs in model scaling. Leadership changes at major AI labs, GPU availability shifts, and talent movements could signal acceleration or delays. Published research papers, patent filings, and executive commentary on development timelines provide market-moving signals. Macroeconomic factors affecting AI investment, geopolitical developments influencing AI competition, and unexpected technical obstacles could substantially shift odds. Traders should track industry conferences, earnings calls, and official statements from leading organizations developing frontier AI systems.
