TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks individual player performance statistics for the France vs. Senegal FIFA World Cup match on June 16, 2026. The leading outcome, Sadio Mané: 3+ shots, shows a consensus probability of 100.0% across Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA.com final match statistics and official box scores, with credible reporting consensus serving as backup if official data is unavailable within the specified timeframe. Watch the match kickoff at 3:00 PM ET on June 16, 2026, when these player prop outcomes will be decided during the 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA.com final match statistics and official box score; credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 2-24 hours depending on platformCore resolution logic:
- All player prop markets resolve based on official statistics from FIFA.com within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only (no extra time or penalty shootouts)
- Own goals do not count toward individual player goal totals
- If a player is listed as inactive or does not play, all their prop markets resolve to No
- Goals and assists are counted only if officially credited to the named player in the match statistics
- Shots, shots on target, and saves are counted only if officially credited in the match statistics
- If the game is postponed, markets remain open until the match is completed
- If the game is cancelled entirely with no makeup game, all markets resolve 50-50
- If official statistics are not published within 2 hours (Predict/Polymarket) or 24 hours (Polymarket goalkeeper markets), a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Postponement: If the match is postponed, all player prop markets remain open and unresolved until the game is completed. Resolution then occurs based on the final match statistics from the rescheduled date.
- Cancellation with No Makeup: If the match is cancelled entirely and no makeup game is scheduled, all player prop markets resolve 50-50 (split evenly between Yes and No outcomes).
- Player Inactivity: If a player is listed as inactive or does not play in the match, all their individual prop markets (goals, assists, shots, etc.) resolve to No regardless of any other circumstances.
- Delayed Official Statistics: If FIFA.com does not publish official final match statistics within 2 hours (Predict/Kalshi) or 24 hours (Polymarket), credible reporting consensus from reputable sports media sources may be used for resolution.
- Revisions After Resolution: Any revisions to officially declared final scores or statistics made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. Markets settle based on the official result as recognized at the time of resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the match concludes (after 90 minutes plus stoppage time). Official statistics must be published or credible consensus established within 2-24 hours depending on platform before final settlement.Polymarket
Goal scorer markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Senegal, scheduled for June 16 at 3:00 PM ET.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on individual goal-scoring performance during the entire France vs Senegal FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 16, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Each market tracks a specific player and a defined goal threshold, resolving to Yes if that player scores at least the specified number of goals. Thresholds vary by player: Adrien Rabiot, Aurelien Tchouameni, Dayot Upamecano, and Desire Doue are tracked at 1+ and 2+ goal levels; Kylian Mbappe at 1+, 2+, and 3+ levels; Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele at 1+, 2+, and 3+ levels; Ismaila Sarr, Nicolas Jackson, and Sadio Mane at 1+ and 2+ levels. If a player is listed as active but does not enter the game, the market settles at the last fair market price before kickoff. Once a player enters the game, settlement is determined solely by the goals officially recorded for that player.
Predict
More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 16 at 3:00 PM ET.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than fixed sportsbook lines, meaning odds adjust dynamically as traders buy and sell shares. Sportsbooks set margins and limits; prediction markets let supply and demand drive the price. This often results in tighter spreads and faster reaction to breaking news or injury reports. However, sportsbooks may offer deeper liquidity on mainstream props, while prediction markets excel at niche player outcomes. Comparing both sources helps identify value, especially when one venue hasn't yet repriced after a significant development.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, causing temporary price gaps on the same prop. Kalshi may emphasize spread-based outcomes while Polymarket focuses on individual player milestones, leading to distinct order-book depths and volatility profiles. Regulatory differences, settlement timing, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly prices converge. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, but friction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent instant alignment. Monitoring both venues reveals which props are most contested and where edge may exist.
This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the match concludes and player statistics are finalized. The outcome is verified against credible public sources to confirm individual performance metrics. Each prop settles independently based on whether the specified threshold was met—for example, a goal prop resolves yes if the player scored at least once, no otherwise. Traders should monitor official match data and any platform-specific clarifications on how edge cases are handled, ensuring they understand the exact criteria before the final whistle.
Team news—injuries, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can dramatically reprrice player props, especially for key contributors. Pre-match press conferences often reveal starting elevens and formation adjustments that alter expected playing time and opportunity volume. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and opponent defensive strength also influence individual output forecasts. As kickoff approaches, late-breaking roster updates or surprise absences trigger sharp repricing. During the match itself, early goals, red cards, or substitutions shift remaining-time expectations and player involvement, creating dynamic trading opportunities through the final whistle.
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