TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
Fed Decision in July?: No change
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Description
These markets predict whether the Federal Reserve will make a policy decision (rate change) at its July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting. Both platforms resolve based on the official FOMC statement and the magnitude of any change to the target federal funds rate upper bound.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution rules contain a logical contradiction where every possible Federal Reserve action (hike, cut, or no change) resolves to YES, making the market unresolvable and meaningless. Limitless provides a coherent, mutually exclusive outcome structure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi until the rules are corrected. The market as stated will resolve YES regardless of Fed action, eliminating all predictive value. Trade Limitless instead, which has proper outcome brackets and rounding logic.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves YES for: hike 25bps, hike >25bps, hike 0bps (no change), cut 25bps, and cut 25bps. Every possible Fed outcome maps to YES, creating a logical impossibility. Key quote: 'If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' alongside hike conditions.Limitless:
Resolves to one of six mutually exclusive brackets: 25bps increase, 50+ bps increase, 25bps decrease, 50+ bps decrease, no change, or unspecified (rounds to nearest 25bps). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.'
Kalshi
This event resolves based on the Federal Reserve's action on July 29, 2026. The possible outcomes are mutually exclusive: a rate cut of 25 basis points, a cut exceeding 25 basis points, maintaining the rate at 0 basis points, a hike of 25 basis points, or a hike exceeding 25 basis points. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No.
Limitless
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Frequently asked questions
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Limitless may price the July 2026 Fed decision differently due to variations in order flow, user demographics, and contract design. Kalshi currently shows 92.0% for a 25 basis point cut, while Limitless reflects 2.9% for a 25 basis point increase, a spread of 89.1 percentage points. Differences in liquidity depth, fee structures, and the specific wording of outcome definitions can create arbitrage opportunities. Traders monitoring both platforms may exploit these gaps or use them to gauge which scenario commands stronger conviction in different market segments.
The Fed decision in Jul 2026 market resolves on Jul 30, 2026, following the Federal Reserve's official announcement of its policy decision. Resolution is determined by the Fed's stated action at the conclusion of their July 2026 meeting: whether they cut rates, hold steady, or raise rates, and by how many basis points. The outcome is verified against the Fed's official press release and policy statement. Markets typically resolve within hours of the announcement, allowing traders to settle positions and redeploy capital to subsequent Fed decision events.
Major economic data releases—inflation reports, employment figures, GDP growth, and jobless claims—will drive odds for the July 2026 Fed decision. Fed communications, including speeches and meeting minutes, signal policy direction and can shift market expectations significantly. Geopolitical shocks, financial stability concerns, or unexpected recessions or booms could force the Fed to pivot from baseline expectations. Market volatility and credit conditions may also influence the Fed's calculus. Traders should monitor the Fed funds futures curve, breakeven inflation rates, and real yields as leading indicators of how the July 2026 decision odds may evolve.
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