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Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
polymarket

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$320,014
Volume 24h:
$13,037
67%
Liquidity:
$58,845
71%
Open interest:
$14,966N/A

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Time left: 04d:17h:42m

Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.7¢ buys you 14,286 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $14,286 | Net Profit: $14,186 Multiplier: 142.86x | ROI: 14,186% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$58,845
$93,894
11%
115%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$173,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Iranian island control market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this geopolitical event. You can view the current top outcome probability, historical price charts, and 24-hour volume of $8,928. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect trader sentiment and market dynamics as new information emerges, giving you a live snapshot of where the market stands on the possibility of changes to Iranian control over specific islands.

Currently, this market shows a top outcome probability of 0.7%, reflecting trader expectations about shifts in control over the islands. Analyst forecasts often vary, with some suggesting stability while others warn of potential conflicts. Comparing these views, prediction market odds tend to price in a higher likelihood of change than many traditional analyses, possibly due to real-time reactions to news and geopolitical developments that influence trader behavior.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set the odds through buying and selling contracts that represent different possible outcomes. The current pricing reflects the collective assessment of all participants, with the top outcome priced at 0.7%. Market depth and liquidity, indicated by a volume of $320,014, help determine how sensitive prices are to new information or shifts in trader confidence.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution depends on whether any of the specified islands—Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, or Kharg—cease to be under Iranian control before the deadline, as reported through authoritative news sources and official statements. No additional criteria or interpretation is required beyond publicly available evidence.

Several signals could shift this market before Nov 1, 2026. Military exercises, diplomatic announcements, or unexpected conflicts in the region may increase the perceived likelihood of change, moving odds toward outcomes indicating reduced Iranian control. Conversely, strong reaffirmations of sovereignty or successful defense operations could push probabilities lower. Traders will closely watch naval patrol reports, international statements, and any incidents involving regional powers.