ERCOT North Hub average real-time power price (Week 44)

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the all-hours average real-time power price at ERCOT North Hub exceeds specified thresholds ($20/MWh, $30/MWh, $40/MWh, $50/MWh, $65/MWh, $100/MWh, or $200/MWh) for the week ending October 30, 2026. The relevant period runs from October 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT to October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, including the start time but excluding the end time. Prices are drawn from ERCOT’s 15-minute real-time Settlement Point Prices for node NP6-905-CD, following Central-time operating days and delivery-interval conventions. The average is calculated as a simple mean of all applicable 15-minute prices, including negative values, and rounded to two decimal places with exact halves rounded away from zero; equality with the threshold resolves to No. Trading closes on October 30, 2026 at 4:59 PM EDT, with the final delivery interval included in calculations. Only the first published prices are used, with later corrections considered only if published before expiration and accepted as material error corrections. Unverified, estimated, indicative, and forecast prices are excluded. Missing data points are not filled; if at least 95% of required intervals are available, the average is calculated from available prices. If less than 95% of intervals are available, the market resolves only if the available data conclusively determines the outcome; otherwise, it settles at the Exchange-determined last fair price under full rules.