TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
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ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
predict
polymarket

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

Total volume:
$665,730
Volume 24h:
$3,736N/A
Liquidity:
$308,549
2%
Open interest:
$147,767N/A

No change

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Time left: 02d:13h:46m

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 98.9¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: 650% 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

No change

Trade
98%
Yes 98.9¢No 2.5¢
1.4¢
$67,367
$3,579
0%
0.28%
N/A
2d 13h 46m
active
polymarket

No change

98%
Yes 98.2¢No 1.9¢
0.1¢
$16,352
$285,078
0.62%
3%
N/A
2d 17h 46m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
98.2%
Yes 98.6¢No 2.2¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.4¢
predict

25 bps increase

3%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.3¢
—
$30,859
$1,946
0%
2%
N/A
2d 13h 46m
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99¢
0.9¢
$8,360
$212,128
0.02%
0.93%
N/A
2d 17h 46m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.5%
Yes 2.3¢No 98.2¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$4,709
$35,997
0%
23%
N/A
2d 17h 46m
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$60,272
$2
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 46m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

25 bps decrease

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$60,813
$2
0%
0%
N/A
2d 13h 46m
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,375
$40,828
0%
8%
N/A
2d 17h 46m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

50+ bps increase

99%
96%
Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢
—
$29,703
$2
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 46m
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$15,739
$86,168
0%
1%
N/A
2d 17h 46m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 49.3¢No 50.7¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.