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483,990

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Science and Technology
Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
polymarket
opinion

Will Consensys IPO market cap be above?

Total volume:
$4,431,317
Volume 24h:
$1,577,745N/A
Liquidity:
$2,893
9%
Open interest:
$14,731N/A

$1B

all

2 markets

Opinion

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

$1B

10%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 41.8¢ buys you 239 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $239 | Net Profit: $139 Multiplier: 2.39x | ROI: 139% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

$1B

Trade
10%
Yes 41.8¢No 99¢
40.8¢
N/A
$1,577,745
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
7%
Yes 9.9¢No 95.8¢
5.7¢
$1,264
$258,625
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7%
Yes 25.9¢No 97.4¢
Avg: 23.3¢Max: 40.8¢
opinion

$3B

Trade
25%
Yes 17.9¢No 97¢
14.9¢
N/A
$1,508,468
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$3B

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
$841
$33,006
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6.5%
Yes 13¢No 96¢
Avg: 9¢Max: 14.9¢
opinion

$2B

Trade
40%
Yes 29.8¢No 98.8¢
28.6¢
N/A
$1,011,235
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$788
$42,238
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6%
Yes 18.4¢No 96.9¢
Avg: 15.3¢Max: 28.6¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the probability of crypto infrastructure company Consensys achieving a closing market capitalization above $2 billion in its initial public offering. Currently, the consensus probability estimates this outcome at 39.6%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Opinion, and will resolve based on the official closing market capitalization reported on the primary exchange’s official listing page, with fallback to a reliable source if necessary. The second most probable outcome is a closing market cap above $3 billion, at 24.5%. Keep an eye on the IPO’s launch date, as markets will resolve to ‘No’ if the offering doesn’t occur by December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets share identical resolution criteria based on the official closing market capitalization on the first day of trading.Primary resolution logic: Primary exchange’s official listing page, with fallback to a reliable source if necessary.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day.
  • Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the closing market cap exceeds the threshold specified in the market question.
  • If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Trading Interruption: If trading is interrupted on the first day, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, it resolves based on the next trading day's official closing price.
  • No IPO by Deadline: If Consensys does not have an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets will resolve to 'No'.
Timing: Resolution will occur on the first day of Consensys’ trading, or on the next trading day if an interruption occurs, or on December 31, 2026, if no IPO has occurred by that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the collective prediction on the closing market cap of Consensys following its initial public offering. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $4,431,317, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of market participants regarding the potential valuation. The Polymarket currently shows a chance of 7.0% for Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?, while Opinion indicates 39.6% for $2B. This allows traders to see how opinions differ across venues.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent a forward-looking assessment of probability, distinct from current spot price expectations. While a stock's current price reflects present conditions, this market aggregates beliefs about a future event – the closing market cap of Consensys after its IPO. The implied probability derived from the prices offered on Polymarket and Opinion can offer a different perspective than traditional financial analysis, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and expert opinions. A significant difference between prediction market probabilities and traditional forecasts could signal market inefficiencies or overlooked information.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion for the Consensys IPO market may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Trading volume can also influence price discovery; higher volume generally leads to more efficient pricing. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and order matching on each platform can contribute to temporary price discrepancies. These differences highlight the value of observing multiple prediction markets to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing market capitalization of Consensys on its IPO date, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. The final price will be determined by the official exchange listing the Consensys stock, and will be independently verified to ensure accuracy. Traders should monitor news sources for the official IPO date and closing price to understand the final outcome of this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Consensys’s financial performance, regulatory approvals related to its IPO, or broader market conditions affecting the crypto sector could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the IPO’s pricing or the number of shares offered would also be influential. Additionally, general investor appetite for tech IPOs and overall economic indicators could play a role. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price movements in this market leading up to Jan 1, 2027.