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California Governor winner? (Person)
kalshi

California Governor winner?

May 16, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 6, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$50,834,453
Volume 24h:
$44,415
50%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$20,636,648
0.14%

Xavier Becerra

 - Kalshi

Xavier Becerra - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 6, 2027

Who will win the governorship in California?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96.8¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 9% 131 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Xavier Becerra

Trade
96%
Yes 96.8¢No 3.5¢
0.3¢
N/A
$5,077,072
0.35%
3%
$1,721,168
4mo 1w 4d
active
kalshi

Steve Hilton

Trade
4%
Yes 3.4¢No 96.9¢
0.3¢
N/A
$7,691,092
0.35%
4%
$3,718,938
4mo 1w 4d
active
kalshi

Chad Bianco

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,294,672
N/A
N/A
$3,185,544
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Tom Steyer

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,983,987
N/A
N/A
$1,744,765
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Matt Mahan

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,630,889
N/A
N/A
$2,061,710
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Katie Porter

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,360,507
N/A
N/A
$1,065,998
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Eric Swalwell

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,356,859
N/A
N/A
$1,008,569
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Ché Ahn

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,890,393
N/A
N/A
$1,035,911
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Kamala Harris

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,591,652
N/A
N/A
$790,917
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Nicole Shanahan

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,395,809
N/A
N/A
$296,204
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Daniel Mercuri

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,302,105
N/A
N/A
$191,108
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Butch Ware

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,237,961
N/A
N/A
$297,795
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Rob Bonta

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,174,652
N/A
N/A
$218,848
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Antonio Villaraigosa

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,134,973
N/A
N/A
$619,871
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Leo Zacky

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,126,031
N/A
N/A
$177,330
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Eleni Kounalakis

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,091,711
N/A
N/A
$159,873
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Rick Caruso

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,012,005
N/A
N/A
$267,564
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Alex Padilla

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,006,821
N/A
N/A
$419,244
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Stephen Cloobeck

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$975,748
N/A
N/A
$197,202
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Ethan Agarwal

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$882,908
N/A
N/A
$199,783
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Kyle Langford

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$846,498
N/A
N/A
$183,927
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Betty Yee

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$827,508
N/A
N/A
$401,681
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Toni Atkins

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$746,954
N/A
N/A
$147,673
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Tony Thurmond

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$695,763
N/A
N/A
$381,855
4mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

Michael Younger

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$499,883
N/A
N/A
$143,171
4mo 1w 4d
No
Total markets: 25

Intro

This market tracks whether Xavier Becerra will be elected governor of California in the 2026 election. On Kalshi, Becerra's election is priced at 91.4%, with an alternative outcome at 8.3%. The market resolves according to the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Watch for the conclusion of voting on election day in 2026, which will determine the final outcome and market resolution.

Kalshi

If Toni Atkins is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyle Langford is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rick Caruso is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chad Bianco is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Antonio Villaraigosa is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephen Cloobeck is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eleni Kounalakis is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daniel Mercuri is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Katie Porter is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tony Thurmond is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Butch Ware is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Betty Yee is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Younger is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Leo Zacky is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicole Shanahan is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Padilla is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kamala Harris is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Steyer is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eric Swalwell is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ethan Agarwal is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rob Bonta is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ché Ahn is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matt Mahan is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The California Governor winner dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and pricing for who will win the California governorship. It displays the current probability implied by market prices, 24-hour trading volume of $44,415, and historical price movements so you can see how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard aggregates all active outcome contracts into a single view, letting you monitor the leading candidate's odds and compare relative market confidence across all contenders in this high-volume election event.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking sentiment. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about the actual outcome, including late-breaking news and campaign momentum. For the California governorship, market odds may weight factors like fundraising, endorsements, and turnout models differently than pollsters do. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is more bullish or bearish than public surveys suggest.

On Kalshi, the California Governor winner market is priced as binary outcome contracts, where each candidate's contract trades between 0 and 100 cents based on the implied probability of victory. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy contracts at lower prices if they believe a candidate is undervalued, or sell if they think the price is too high. The top outcome currently reflects 96.4% implied probability, with total market volume reaching $12,768,165. Prices update continuously as new information and trades flow in.

Key catalysts for California Governor winner odds include major campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent figures, and shifts in voter registration or early voting data. Economic reports, state ballot initiatives, and national political developments can also sway the race. Media coverage of candidate gaffes or scandals, fundraising disclosures, and polling releases typically trigger sharp price moves. As election day approaches, turnout models and final polls become increasingly influential, with late-breaking developments capable of reshaping market expectations in the final weeks.