TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Brazil Presidential election winner?
kalshi

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Jan 11, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Oct 25, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$3,210,224
Volume 24h:
$11,293
31%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,668,756
0.36%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

 - Kalshi

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 25, 2026

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% High Projected APY: 2,028% 59 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
61%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
N/A
$611,768
0.74%
3%
$248,606
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
39%
3%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$744,653
0.45%
2%
$285,075
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Renan Santos

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.9¢No 98.9¢
1.8¢
N/A
$611,895
0.33%
5%
$430,323
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Ciro Gomes

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$51
0%
0%
$51
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Romeu Zema

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
N/A
$302,394
0.47%
6%
$147,203
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Jair Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
N/A
$159,037
0%
0%
$141,007
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Fernando Haddad

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$177,200
0%
0%
$113,966
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Tarcísio de Freitas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$222,897
0%
0%
$80,151
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Ronaldo Caiado

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
N/A
$181,948
0%
7%
$95,721
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Ratinho Júnior

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$87,397
0%
0%
$44,639
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Michelle Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$76,124
0%
0%
$49,141
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Aldo Rebelo

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33,631
0%
0%
$31,695
1mo 4w 1d
active
kalshi

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,230
0%
0%
$1,177
1mo 4w 1d
active
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with the leading outcome currently at 61.0%. Flávio Bolsonaro is the second-most-likely outcome at 23.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results from the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The betting window closes on October 25, 2026, when the national election concludes and a winner is officially determined.

Kalshi

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jair Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fernando Haddad has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tarcisio de Frietas has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michelle Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eduardo Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ratinho Júnior has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Renan Santos has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Romeu Zema has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ronaldo Caiado has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aldo Rebelo has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ciro Gomes has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time political developments, campaign momentum, and institutional betting that polls may lag. While polls capture voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reward accuracy with financial incentives, creating dynamic repricing as new information emerges. For the 2026 Brazilian presidential race, market-implied probabilities reflect traders' collective assessment of electability and viability, sometimes leading or contradicting headline poll numbers depending on recent events and campaign trajectories.

The Brazil Presidential election winner market resolves on Oct 25, 2026, following the official conclusion of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Resolution is determined by the candidate who receives the most votes and is officially declared the winner by Brazilian electoral authorities. Markets remain open for trading until the resolution date, after which winning contracts pay out at full value and losing contracts expire worthless, based on the certified election result.

Major catalysts for price movement include campaign announcements, coalition shifts, economic data releases, and polling surprises. Scandals, legal challenges, or health issues affecting leading candidates can trigger sharp repricing. International developments, currency fluctuations, and inflation trends may sway voter sentiment. Debate performances, endorsements from key political figures, and regional campaign events also influence trader expectations. As the election approaches, each new poll release, campaign milestone, or political crisis typically generates renewed trading activity and probability adjustments across all candidates in the market.