TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$101,900,907
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,178,729,067
335,697
Markets across
33,528
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,579
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
claude-opus-5-high
- Polymarket
claude-opus-5-high - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Latest in Science and Technology
Time left: 04d:08h:13m
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?
$
Description
This event group determines which AI model will rank highest on specified leaderboards by August 31, 2026. The Polymarket questions focus on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, while the Kalshi question focuses on the Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Different resolution sources and datesHero tip: Traders should be aware that these markets resolve based on different leaderboards and dates. Bets should be placed accordingly based on the specific resolution source and timing for each market.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Uses arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard checked on August 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Models are ordered by rank, then Arena score, then alphabetical order.
- Kalshi: Uses Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard checked on August 28, 2026 at 10:00am ET. Market resolves to Yes if any of the listed companies (OpenAI, Reve, Microsoft, Google, HiDream, Bytedance, Nvidia, Recraft, SpaceXAI, Black Forest Labs, Krea) is the #1 model.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines the top-performing text-to-image AI model among multiple contenders as ranked on the Artificial Analysis Leaderboard at 10:00am ET on August 28, 2026. If any participant achieves the #1 position, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. In cases where multiple models tie for the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking rules apply; if none exist, all tied entities share the top position. Contracts for tied entities will resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. The platform disclaims any affiliation with the governing league or ownership of trademarks and brand names involved.
