TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$101,900,907
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,178,729,067
335,697
Markets across
33,528
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,579
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
claude-opus-5-high
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Latest in Science and Technology
Time left: 03d:22h:14m
What will be the top AI model this month?
$
Description
This event group focuses on determining which AI model will achieve the highest ranking on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on August 24, 2026. The markets span two platforms with slightly different resolution criteria but share the same underlying data source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use the same leaderboard source and ranking methodology, with only market-specific outcome mappings differing between platformsPrimary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlCore resolution logic:
- Check the Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on August 24, 2026
- Use the Rank column values, with Arena score as primary tiebreaker followed by alphabetical order of full model names
- Kalshi resolves Yes if any of its five listed models is ranked #1
- Polymarket resolves to the specific model name if it is ranked #1, or to Other if no listed model achieves the top rank
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Leaderboard Unavailable: Markets remain open until the leaderboard becomes available again; resolve based on first check after recovery. If permanently unavailable, Polymarket resolves to Other while Kalshi remains unresolved per its terms.
- Tie at #1: Rank ties broken by Arena score (including unrounded values), then by alphabetical order of full model names including suffixes like -thinking
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked AI model as of August 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. If multiple models share the same top rank, the model with the highest Arena Score breaks the tie. Should the tie persist, the model with the most votes is selected. If still unresolved, the model released earlier prevails. All evaluations must be conducted with the 'Remove Style Control' toggle activated to ensure consistency across assessments.
