TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
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647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Bank of Israel Decision in July?
Time left: 18d:20h:21m
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the Bank of Israel will hold its benchmark interest rate steady at the upcoming monetary policy decision. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 72.0% probability that the central bank will make no change to the rate. Resolution will be determined by the official Bank of Israel announcement following the July 6, 2026 decision, as published on the Bank of Israel's website. Watch for the rate decision announcement on July 6, 2026, which will settle this market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses a three-outcome categorical framework (increase/no change/decrease) while Kalshi uses a single binary outcome that resolves YES for any action taken (including no change). This creates a structural mismatch in how the same event is segmented.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, you are betting on one of three mutually exclusive outcomes; exactly one will resolve YES. On Kalshi, the market resolves YES if any decision is announced (including maintaining the rate), making it a near-certainty resolution unless the meeting is cancelled. If trading both platforms, note that Kalshi's binary structure does not distinguish between rate directions—it only confirms a decision occurred.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate markets covering mutually exclusive outcomes: increase, no change, or decrease in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate. Resolution is based on the official Bank of Israel announcement of the July 6, 2026 decision. If no decision is issued by the next scheduled meeting, all markets resolve to the 'No change' bracket. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel's July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.'Kalshi:
Single binary market that resolves YES for any of five possible actions: cut more than 25bps, hike 1-25bps, hike more than 25bps, cut 1-25bps, or maintain current rate. The market does not distinguish between direction or magnitude—all outcomes trigger YES. Quote: 'If the Bank of Israel takes the action of [any listed action] at the July Monetary Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its July 6, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their July 6, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Israel at its July Monetary Committee meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate count; if the central bank maintains multiple policy rates, secondary rates are disregarded. Basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning a 25bp change qualifies for both the "1-25bps" and "25-50bps" categories where applicable. If the scheduled meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, the "Maintain current rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to this scheduled meeting.
Frequently asked questions
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket may show different odds due to variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and outcome framing. Kalshi currently shows 12.0% for its top outcome, while Polymarket reflects 14.5%, a spread of 2.5 percentage points. Differences arise from distinct trader demographics, fee structures, and how each platform phrases the rate-cut or hold scenarios. Lower liquidity on one venue can also amplify price swings, and arbitrage opportunities between platforms may persist if transaction costs or withdrawal delays prevent rapid capital reallocation.
The market resolves on Jul 6, 2026, following the Bank of Israel's official monetary committee announcement. Resolution hinges on the central bank's stated decision regarding the benchmark interest rate: whether it holds the rate unchanged, implements a rate cut within a specified basis-point range, or raises rates. The official Bank of Israel press release and rate decision statement serve as the authoritative source for determining which outcome occurred, with no ambiguity in the announced rate level.
Key catalysts include monthly inflation data releases, labor market reports, and Bank of Israel Governor communications or policy guidance. Global interest-rate moves, particularly Federal Reserve decisions, influence Israeli monetary policy expectations. Geopolitical developments affecting regional stability and currency flows can shift trader positioning. Domestic credit conditions, wage growth trends, and import-price pressures all feed into market repricing. Any surprise economic data or unexpected central bank commentary in the weeks leading up to the July meeting will likely trigger sharp odds adjustments as traders reassess the probability of a hold versus a cut.
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