TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks whether the Baltimore Orioles versus Seattle Mariners game scheduled for June 16, 2026 will go to extra innings. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for this outcome, based on official MLB statistics as the resolution source. Note that a Resolution Divergence Alert is active on this event due to platform differences in market structure and scope. Watch the game result on June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET to see how the actual outcome compares to market expectations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic (Yes if either team wins) creates a fundamentally different market structure than Polymarket and Predict (binary winner selection). This is a scope and logical architecture divergence, not a data integrity failure, but it prevents unified settlement across platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not treat Kalshi and Polymarket/Predict as equivalent markets. Kalshi effectively bets on whether the game produces a winner (not a tie/cancellation), while Polymarket/Predict require selection of a specific winner. Kalshi will resolve Yes unless the game is tied or canceled without makeup; Polymarket/Predict require picking the correct team.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary winner market. Resolves to "Baltimore Orioles" if Orioles win, "Seattle Mariners" if Mariners win. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup or tie resolves 50-50. Source: Official MLB statistics within 24 hours or credible consensus.Predict:
Binary winner market. Resolves to "Baltimore Orioles" if Orioles win, "Seattle Mariners" if Mariners win. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup or tie resolves 50-50. Source: Official MLB statistics within 24 hours or credible consensus.Kalshi:
Outcome-existence market. Resolves to Yes if Baltimore wins OR Seattle wins (either outcome triggers Yes). Implicitly resolves No only if game is tied or canceled without makeup. This is logically distinct from selecting a specific winner.
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for June 16 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the final result of the Baltimore vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two days of the original date. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days after the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.
Predict
In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for June 16 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than bookmaker margins, often reflecting sharper consensus when liquidity is high. Sportsbooks build in juice (typically 4–5%) and may adjust lines based on liability management, while this market's odds emerge from direct trader supply and demand. For major sports events, prediction market prices tend to converge toward sportsbook midlines over time, though early-market divergences can offer value if one venue has stale or imbalanced positioning.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity depths, and fee structures, leading to temporary price gaps. Kalshi may see heavier volume from one outcome, while Polymarket reflects a different distribution of bets. Geographic access, user interface preferences, and platform-specific incentives also fragment the market, allowing arbitrage opportunities until prices realign.
This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning side is determined by the official final score of the game. Traders holding positions on the correct outcome receive their share of the pool, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Key catalysts include injury reports or roster changes affecting either team's lineup, weather conditions at game time, recent team performance streaks, and betting line movements at major sportsbooks. Breaking news on player availability, umpire assignments, or travel delays can shift sentiment quickly. Late-breaking analytics, expert predictions, or social media momentum may also drive traders to reposition, especially as game time approaches and uncertainty narrows.
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