TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks the exact final score of the FIFA World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria on June 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. Across Predict, Polymarket, and Kalshi, the consensus probability for an Argentina 2-0 victory stands at 40.0%, with an Argentina 2-0 result at 38.0% as the second-most-likely outcome. Resolution will be determined by official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, based on the score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Watch for the match kickoff on June 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET to see which exact scoreline materializes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi explicitly lists high-score outcomes (4-0 through 6-1) that Predict and Polymarket do not itemize separately, instead using an 'Any Other Score' catch-all. This creates asymmetric outcome granularity across platforms.Hero Tip:
Verify Kalshi's fallback rule for scores exceeding 6-1 (e.g., 7-0). On Predict/Polymarket, such scores automatically resolve to 'Any Other Score.' Kalshi traders should confirm whether outcomes above 6-1 are covered by an implicit catch-all or left unresolved.Critical Divergence Points:
Predict & Polymarket:
Outcomes explicitly listed up to 3-3 (18 specific scorelines) plus 'Any Other Score' catch-all. Any score not in the explicit list resolves to 'Any Other Score.' Quote: 'If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score."'Kalshi:
Outcomes explicitly listed from 0-0 up to 6-1 (24 individual scorelines), including 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 5-0, 5-1, 5-2, 6-0, 6-1. No explicit 'Any Other Score' option mentioned. Quote: 'If Argentina wins 6-1...then the market resolves to Yes' with no stated fallback for higher scores.
Polymarket
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Algeria, scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Argentina vs. Algeria match originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the final score of the Argentina vs Algeria FIFA World Cup match originally scheduled for June 16, 2026, as determined after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time. Extra time periods and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. Each available outcome represents a distinct final scoreline, and the market settles to whichever outcome matches the actual score at the conclusion of the 90-minute plus stoppage time period.
Predict
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Algeria, scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Argentina vs. Algeria match originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket operate independent order books and attract different trader demographics, leading to natural price variations. Kalshi currently shows 1.0% for its top outcome, while Polymarket reflects distinct liquidity and risk appetite. Differences in platform fees, user base geography, and trading mechanics mean identical scorelines may trade at different probabilities across venues. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, gradually narrowing spreads but never fully eliminating them due to transaction costs and settlement risk.
The Argentina vs. Algeria - Exact Score market resolves on Jun 17, 2026, following the conclusion of the match. Resolution is determined by the official final scoreline recorded by the governing football authority. Markets remain open for trading until kickoff and may experience heightened volatility in final minutes as new information emerges. Once the match ends and the score is confirmed, the market settles to the winning exact-score outcome, and all other positions expire worthless.
Key catalysts include official team lineups and injury announcements, which reshape expectations around offensive firepower and defensive solidity. Betting syndicates and sharp traders often move markets on confirmed absences of star players. Recent form, head-to-head history, and tournament momentum can shift trader conviction on scoreline probabilities. Weather conditions at match venue and referee assignments may also influence scoring patterns. Social media sentiment, expert predictions, and late-breaking tactical leaks from coaching staff can trigger rapid repricing across Kalshi and Polymarket in the hours before kickoff.
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