TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

polymarket

kalshi

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Total volume:

$59,688

Volume 24h:

$0N/A

Liquidity:

$362

19%

Open interest:

$26,695

0%

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

- Polymarket

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 21¢ buys you 476 shares | Odds: 18% Total Payout: $476 | Net Profit: $376 Multiplier: 4.76x | ROI: 376% High Projected APY: 9,092% Low liquidity 125 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

18%

1%

Yes 21¢

No 85¢

6¢

$362

$10,014

0%

0.05%

N/A

4mo 5d

active

kalshi

Before September

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$16,039

N/A

N/A

$9,227

4mo 6d

Yes

kalshi

Before October

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$9,337

N/A

N/A

$3,989

4mo 6d

Yes

kalshi

Before December

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$8,790

N/A

N/A

$4,541

4mo 6d

Yes

kalshi

Before 2027

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$7,970

N/A

N/A

$4,032

4mo 6d

Yes

kalshi

Before November

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$7,538

N/A

N/A

$4,906

4mo 6d

Yes

Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks whether an AI will win a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) in 2026, or solve a Frontier Math: Open Problems before specific dates in 2026/2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Different resolution criteria and timelines across platforms create potential for inconsistent settlementsHero tip: Monitor both IMO results and Frontier Math: Open Problems announcements — a solution before any Kalshi deadline could trigger a Yes resolution even if the IMO gold medal isn’t awarded until later

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, or if either the IMO Grand Challenge or Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad demonstrates an AI win before the resolution date
Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before any of several dates from Sep 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether any AI system solves at least one designated 'Frontier Math: Open Problems' between issuance and the respective deadline for each market. Five sequential markets cover progressively later end dates from September 2026 through January 2027. A key secondary rule clarifies that, as of issuance, two specific problems (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs and The 2-adic Absolute Galois Group) had already been solved by AI, and only solutions to additional distinct problems will count toward resolution. All markets share this secondary condition while varying only their temporal boundaries, creating a tiered structure for predicting the timing of future AI-driven mathematical breakthroughs.