TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$84,940,147
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,022,755
334,261
Markets across
33,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,574
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
At least 1530 score
- Kalshi
At least 1530 score - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 2, 2027
Related News
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027
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Intro
This market tracks whether leading artificial intelligence models will reach specific performance milestones on the LMSYS leaderboard before the new year. On Kalshi, the probability that any AI model achieves a score of at least 1750 stands at 34.0%, with a secondary outcome of 1650 or higher at 18.0%. Resolution will be determined by the LMSYS leaderboard official rankings. Watch for major model releases and benchmark updates throughout 2026, as new AI systems entering the leaderboard could rapidly shift performance thresholds before the January 1, 2027 deadline.
Kalshi
Resolution depends on whether any AI model achieves the specified minimum score on the LMSYS leaderboard before January 1, 2027. Each threshold from 1550 to 1750 points is evaluated independently. A market resolves to Yes if any model reaches or exceeds its specified score threshold on the leaderboard by the deadline. The LMSYS leaderboard serves as the authoritative source for model scores.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the AI capability growth this year contract is priced as a binary outcome: will any AI model achieve a score of at least 1550 before January 1, 2027? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability stands at 32.0%, reflecting trader expectations around near-term AI advancement. Kalshi's order book matches buyers and sellers at different price levels, with total volume of $93,237 accumulated since the market opened. As new benchmark results, model releases, or capability announcements surface, traders adjust positions, moving the price up or down to reflect updated beliefs about the likelihood of hitting that 1550 threshold.
The AI capability growth this year market resolves on Jan 2, 2027. At that time, the outcome is determined by whether any AI model has achieved a score of at least 1550 before the resolution deadline. Traders holding positions will see their contracts settle based on the final determination. The market captures a specific, measurable milestone—a 1550 score—that can be verified through published benchmarks, official model releases, and credible AI research announcements. Resolution hinges on clear evidence that the threshold has been crossed by the cutoff date.
Several catalysts could shift odds on Kalshi before Jan 2, 2027. Major AI lab announcements of new model releases, particularly from leading organizations, would signal capability progress. Published benchmark results showing models approaching or exceeding the 1550 score threshold would drive prices sharply higher. Conversely, delays in model releases, disappointing benchmark results, or public statements from AI researchers suggesting slower progress would push odds lower. Regulatory announcements, funding news, or competitive breakthroughs could also influence trader sentiment. Each new piece of evidence about AI advancement speed feeds into market pricing, creating continuous repricing opportunities as the resolution date approaches.
