TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?
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Intro
This market tracks the probability that the US House of Representatives will vote to impeach President Donald Trump through a simple majority vote on one or more articles of impeachment. Across Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows a 56.0% probability of impeachment occurring within the resolution window, with a secondary outcome at 31.0% for a later timeframe. The resolution source is official action by the US House, with credible reporting used as backup verification. Watch for any formal impeachment proceedings or committee votes as the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaches, which marks the end of the primary betting window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Time window scope mismatch between platforms. Polymarket and Predict use a fixed end date of December 31, 2026, while Kalshi offers multiple overlapping binary markets with deadlines extending to January 1, 2028. An impeachment event between January 1, 2027 and December 31, 2027 would resolve differently across platforms.Hero Tip:
Understand your platform's deadline before trading. Polymarket/Predict close on Dec 31, 2026; Kalshi extends further. If you believe impeachment is likely in early 2027, Kalshi markets offer additional exposure that Polymarket/Predict do not capture.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Fixed window: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves 'Yes' if House approves one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority within this period. Primary source: federal government information or consensus of credible reporting.Predict:
Identical to Polymarket: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves 'Yes' if House approves one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority within this period. Primary source: federal government information or consensus of credible reporting.Kalshi:
Multiple binary markets with escalating deadlines: Jun 1, 2026; Sep 1, 2026; Jan 1, 2027; Mar 1, 2027; Jan 1, 2028. Each resolves 'Yes' if impeachment occurs before that date. No explicit source specified; standard Kalshi oracle resolution applies.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if the President of the United States is impeached before January 20, 2029. Impeachment occurs when an impeachment resolution passes against the President while they hold office. The event is structured across multiple checkpoint dates (June 1, 2026; September 1, 2026; January 1, 2027; March 1, 2027; and January 1, 2028), with resolution to Yes triggered if impeachment occurs before any of these dates. The critical requirement is that the President must hold the office at the time the impeachment resolution passes; impeachment of a former president or someone not currently serving would not satisfy the criteria. The market ultimately resolves based on whether impeachment has occurred at any point before the final deadline of January 20, 2029.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and polls measure different things. Polls capture public opinion snapshots on impeachment support, while prediction markets reflect traders' real-money bets on whether impeachment will actually occur by Dec 31, 2026. Markets incorporate insider knowledge, legislative dynamics, and forward-looking analysis that polls may miss. Prediction markets often diverge from polling because traders face financial consequences for accuracy, creating stronger incentives to forecast outcomes rather than express preferences. Comparing the two reveals whether public sentiment aligns with expert expectations of impeachment likelihood.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Kalshi and Polymarket arise from distinct user bases, liquidity depths, and trading mechanics. Kalshi may attract different trader demographics or have tighter spreads, while Polymarket operates under separate fee structures and market-making rules. Regulatory environments, withdrawal policies, and platform credibility also influence how traders price identical outcomes. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect varying confidence levels across communities. Monitoring both venues helps identify which platform's consensus carries more conviction on Trump impeachment by Dec 31, 2026.
Key catalysts include major legal developments, congressional investigations, and shifts in House party control following elections. Scandals, indictments, or high-profile testimony could accelerate impeachment momentum, while political realignment or unified party support could reduce likelihood. Changes in Trump's approval ratings, legislative priorities, and media coverage all influence trader expectations. International incidents, economic shocks, or internal GOP dynamics may also reshape the political calculus. Monitoring these signals helps predict how odds will shift as Dec 31, 2026 approaches.
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