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Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
polymarket
predict
kalshi

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Total volume:
$5,890,761
Volume 24h:
$8,695
150%
Liquidity:
$404,397
0.21%
Open interest:
$1,706,229
0.31%

Before Jan 1, 2028

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% High Projected APY: 1,320% 67 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028

Trade
61%
Yes 61¢No 41¢
2¢
N/A
$1,066,261
0.03%
3%
$395,997
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
20%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$258,761
2%
8%
$117,313
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
4%
Yes 3.6¢No 97.6¢
1.2¢
N/A
$1,437,604
0.17%
1%
$496,140
2mo 1w
active
predict

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

Trade
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.5¢
0.1¢
$294,143
$465,593
0%
11%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98¢
0.1¢
$110,255
$1,009,871
0.01%
0.53%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.7¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 1.2¢
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$108,964
0%
1%
$90,479
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,543,707
N/A
N/A
$606,300
2mo 1w
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the probability that President Donald Trump will face impeachment through a House vote before the end of 2026. Across Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows a 62.0% probability of impeachment occurring within the specified window, with a 25.0% probability assigned to impeachment occurring by March 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by official federal government records and credible reporting, requiring only a House majority vote to approve articles of impeachment—conviction or removal from office is not necessary. Watch the December 31, 2026 deadline, which marks the end of the primary resolution window for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Time window scope mismatch between platforms. Polymarket and Predict use a fixed end date of December 31, 2026, while Kalshi offers multiple overlapping binary markets with deadlines extending to January 1, 2028. An impeachment event between January 1, 2027 and December 31, 2027 would resolve differently across platforms.Hero tip: Understand your platform's deadline before trading. Polymarket/Predict close on Dec 31, 2026; Kalshi extends further. If you believe impeachment is likely in early 2027, Kalshi markets offer additional exposure that Polymarket/Predict do not capture.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Fixed window: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves 'Yes' if House approves one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority within this period. Primary source: federal government information or consensus of credible reporting.
  • Predict: Identical to Polymarket: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves 'Yes' if House approves one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority within this period. Primary source: federal government information or consensus of credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Multiple binary markets with escalating deadlines: Jun 1, 2026; Sep 1, 2026; Jan 1, 2027; Mar 1, 2027; Jan 1, 2028. Each resolves 'Yes' if impeachment occurs before that date. No explicit source specified; standard Kalshi oracle resolution applies.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the President of the United States is impeached before January 20, 2029. Impeachment occurs when an impeachment resolution passes against the President while they hold office. The event is structured across multiple checkpoint dates (June 1, 2026; September 1, 2026; January 1, 2027; March 1, 2027; and January 1, 2028), with resolution to Yes triggered if impeachment occurs before any of these dates. The critical requirement is that the President must hold the office at the time the impeachment resolution passes; impeachment of a former president or someone not currently serving would not satisfy the criteria. The market ultimately resolves based on whether impeachment has occurred at any point before the final deadline of January 20, 2029.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading volume for this event across Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest prediction markets. It displays the consensus probability that Trump will face impeachment by Dec 31, 2026, along with total liquidity of $5,800,553 and recent 24-hour activity of $20,533. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, the dashboard reveals how traders across different venues assess the likelihood of this political outcome, helping you spot divergences and monitor shifting sentiment as new developments emerge.

Prediction markets and polls measure different things. Polls capture public opinion snapshots on impeachment support, while prediction markets reflect traders' real-money bets on whether impeachment will actually occur by Dec 31, 2026. Markets incorporate insider knowledge, legislative dynamics, and forward-looking analysis that polls may miss. Prediction markets often diverge from polling because traders face financial consequences for accuracy, creating stronger incentives to forecast outcomes rather than express preferences. Comparing the two reveals whether public sentiment aligns with expert expectations of impeachment likelihood.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi arise from distinct user bases, liquidity depths, and trading mechanics. Polymarket may attract different trader demographics or have tighter spreads, while Kalshi operates under separate fee structures and market-making rules. Regulatory environments, withdrawal policies, and platform credibility also influence how traders price identical outcomes. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect varying confidence levels across communities. Monitoring both venues helps identify which platform's consensus carries more conviction on Trump impeachment by Dec 31, 2026.

Key catalysts include major legal developments, congressional investigations, and shifts in House party control following elections. Scandals, indictments, or high-profile testimony could accelerate impeachment momentum, while political realignment or unified party support could reduce likelihood. Changes in Trump's approval ratings, legislative priorities, and media coverage all influence trader expectations. International incidents, economic shocks, or internal GOP dynamics may also reshape the political calculus. Monitoring these signals helps predict how odds will shift as Dec 31, 2026 approaches.