TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks who will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows a 73.4% probability that Nicolás Maduro will be Venezuela's leader at that date. Resolution is determined by which individual is formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in as head of state according to official Venezuelan government records. Watch for any significant political developments or institutional changes in Venezuela leading up to the December 31, 2026 resolution timestamp at 10:00 AM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses undefined placeholder leaders ('Leader 2', 'Leader 4', etc.) and includes a 'No Head of State' outcome, while Kalshi lists 18 specific named individuals with no null/absent state option. This creates logical incompleteness on Polymarket and makes cross-platform comparison impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets across platforms. Polymarket's unidentified leader placeholders are unresolvable without clarification of who Leaders 2, 4, 6, etc. actually are. Kalshi's exhaustive list assumes exactly one of 18 named individuals will hold office, which contradicts Polymarket's 'No Head of State' outcome. Wait for platform clarification before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Includes 18 mutually exclusive outcomes covering named individuals (Machado, Maduro, Trump, Rubio, etc.), a 'No Head of State' option, and 14 undefined placeholder outcomes ('Leader 1' through 'Leader 40'). Resolution defaults to UN recognition if Venezuelan government is unclear. The presence of 'No Head of State' implies the market allows for a null outcome on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.Kalshi:
Lists exactly 18 specific named individuals (Guaidó, Rodríguez Torres, Miller, Cabello, Padrino López, Grenell, Hegseth, Maduro, Rubio, Machado, Jorge Rodríguez, Donovan, Pettus, González Urrutia, Delcy Rodríguez, Trump, Figuera, Caine). Each resolves YES if that individual holds head of state on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. No 'No Head of State' outcome; no placeholder leaders. Implicitly assumes exactly one of these 18 will hold office.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Kalshi
The market resolves Yes to the person who officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Official holding requires meeting at least one of three criteria: formal appointment, confirmation if required, and swearing-in; listing in official government directories or organizational charts; or actively serving with full authority and responsibilities (excluding suspended, on-leave, or acting/interim positions unless explicitly specified). Merely being nominated, designated, or serving in an unofficial capacity does not qualify. Acting or interim roles do not satisfy the criteria unless explicitly specified as such. The clarification confirms that as of the current date, Nicolás Maduro satisfies the criteria through formal appointment and swearing-in on January 10, 2025, and continued recognition by authoritative Venezuelan government sources, while Delcy Rodríguez does not qualify because she serves only in an acting capacity. Resolution reflects the actual officeholder status on the specified date and time.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracking venezuela leader end of 2026 differ fundamentally from traditional polls. Markets aggregate financial incentives—traders profit by accurately forecasting outcomes, creating pressure toward efficiency. Polls capture stated preferences at a single moment; markets reflect evolving beliefs as new information emerges. For Venezuelan leadership, market odds incorporate geopolitical risk, sanctions dynamics, and internal political shifts that surveys may lag. Markets also price in tail risks and low-probability scenarios that polls often underweight. While polls provide snapshots of public opinion, prediction markets synthesize dispersed information into probabilistic forecasts, making them complementary rather than directly comparable tools.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket may price venezuela leader end of 2026 differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and outcome specifications. Kalshi currently shows 29.0% for one leadership scenario, while Polymarket reflects 0.1% on an alternative outcome, creating a spread of 28.8 percentage points. Differences arise from varying trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and how each platform structures its resolution criteria. Lower liquidity on one venue may also allow prices to drift further from consensus. Arbitrage opportunities occasionally emerge, though transaction costs and platform-specific rules limit cross-venue trading.
This market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, establishing who holds Venezuela's executive leadership at that moment. Resolution hinges on official recognition and control of state institutions as of the specified date. Markets track competing claims and international acknowledgment of legitimate authority. The outcome determination reflects real-world political developments—elections, transitions, or continuations of current leadership—rather than subjective interpretation. Traders monitor official government announcements, international diplomatic recognition, and credible reporting to anticipate resolution.
Several catalysts could shift odds on venezuela leader end of 2026. Electoral processes or constitutional changes would trigger significant repricing. International sanctions, diplomatic interventions, or shifts in regional power dynamics could alter leadership stability expectations. Economic developments, humanitarian crises, or military actions may reshape trader assessments of political continuity. Statements from opposition figures, government officials, or foreign governments signal changing probabilities. Domestic unrest, institutional changes, or succession announcements would move markets sharply. Traders monitor Venezuelan media, international news, and geopolitical developments closely, as any credible signal about leadership transitions or regime stability feeds into real-time price adjustments.
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