TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
kalshi
polymarket

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Total volume:
$613,646
Volume 24h:
$754
52%
Liquidity:
$48,375
40%
Open interest:
$160,161
0.04%

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 20, 2029

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% | APY: 17% 876 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Trade
67%
1%
Yes 68¢No 35¢
3¢
$48,375
$95,548
0.49%
2%
N/A
2y 4mo 3w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Trade
63%
1%
Yes 66¢No 37¢
3¢
N/A
$518,098
0.06%
3%
$160,161
2y 4mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
65%
Yes 67¢No 36¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Kalshi and Polymarket resolve to Yes if and only if the US House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, regardless of Senate trial or conviction.Primary resolution logic: Official action by the US House of Representatives; federal government records and credible news reporting as secondary confirmation.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if the US House of Representatives passes one or more articles of impeachment against President Trump by simple majority vote on or before January 20, 2029 at 12:00 PM ET.
  • Market resolves NO if no articles of impeachment are approved by the House before the deadline.
  • Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office are not required for YES resolution.
  • The act of impeachment by the House alone is the sole triggering condition.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official passage of articles of impeachment by the US House of Representatives, confirmed by federal government records and credible reporting.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Kalshi

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds for Trump impeachment across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading prediction markets. It displays the consensus probability that Trump will face impeachment before his term concludes on Jan 20, 2029, along with total liquidity and 24-hour trading activity. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, the dashboard reveals how traders across different venues assess this political outcome, helping you monitor shifting sentiment as events unfold. Current combined volume stands at $603,482, with $1,079 traded in the last 24 hours.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ fundamentally from polls. Markets aggregate financial incentives—traders risk real money on outcomes, creating prices that reflect genuine belief and information asymmetries. Polls measure stated opinion at a snapshot in time. Impeachment odds depend on legal and political developments that may not yet register in public surveys. Markets often lead polls when new information emerges, and they naturally incorporate uncertainty about future congressional composition, investigations, and political dynamics in ways traditional polling cannot.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and risk appetite. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct strategies and information sets. Polymarket currently shows 66.5% while Kalshi reflects 63.0%, a spread of 3.5 percentage points. Differences can persist because arbitrage is costly and imperfect; traders may also weight political signals differently or face platform-specific constraints. Monitoring both prices reveals where conviction is strongest.

The market resolves on Jan 20, 2029, marking the end of Trump's presidential term. Resolution hinges on whether formal impeachment proceedings occur and result in articles of impeachment passed by the House before that date. The outcome is binary: either impeachment happens or it does not. Traders should monitor congressional activity, investigations, and political developments that could trigger or prevent impeachment proceedings during the contract period.

Major catalysts include congressional investigations, indictments or legal developments affecting Trump, shifts in House party control or leadership, public scandals, and statements from key Republican or Democratic figures. Unexpected revelations, court rulings, or changes in political alliances could rapidly shift impeachment probability. Market prices will react sharply to news suggesting either heightened legal jeopardy or reduced political appetite for impeachment. Monitor both chambers' composition and leadership priorities, as impeachment requires House passage and reflects evolving political calculations.