TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Time left: 13d:13h:54m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Description
This event group tracks whether Silver (SI) CME futures will reach specific price thresholds by end of June 2026. Markets are split into 'HIGH' (upside) and 'LOW' (downside) targets, ranging from $35 to $250 per ounce. Resolution depends on the official CME settlement price for the Active Month contract touching or crossing each threshold on any trading day through June 30, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
CME Group official settlement prices at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.htmlCore resolution logic:
- HIGH markets resolve YES if CME Active Month Silver settlement price >= specified threshold on any trading day by June 30, 2026
- LOW markets resolve YES if CME Active Month Silver settlement price <= specified threshold on any trading day by June 30, 2026
- Only official CME settlement prices count; intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, and indicative prices are excluded
- Active Month is the nearest CME designated delivery-cycle month (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month
- Active Month rolls over automatically on First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes Active
- Settlement price is evaluated as first published by CME on the settlement page, regardless of any later corrections or updates
- Only trading days with published CME settlement prices are included; weekends, holidays, and market closures are ignored
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Active Month Rollover: If the Active Month rolls over during the resolution period (e.g., from May to July contract), the new Active Month's settlement price is used going forward. The transition occurs on the First Position Date of the expiring contract.
- CME Settlement Price Corrections: Resolution uses the settlement price as first published by CME on the settlement page, not any later corrections or updates. This prevents disputes over amended data.
- Market Closure or No Settlement: Days without a published CME settlement price (weekends, holidays, market closures) are ignored and do not affect resolution. Only days with official settlement prices are evaluated.
- Threshold Equality: For HIGH markets, settlement price must be equal to or above the threshold. For LOW markets, settlement price must be equal to or below the threshold. Exact threshold hits resolve YES.
- Multiple Threshold Hits: If a price threshold is touched on multiple trading days, the market resolves YES on the first occurrence. Subsequent touches do not change the resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the final trading day of June 2026 (June 30, 2026), when all CME settlement prices through that date have been published and verified. Markets resolve based on whether the threshold was touched on any trading day from market creation (March 12, 2026) through June 30, 2026.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders on Polymarket and Predict, often incorporating forward-looking sentiment faster than traditional analyst reports. While sell-side forecasts rely on fundamental models and historical trends, prediction markets price in live supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risk, and industrial demand shifts. The divergence between market odds and published analyst targets can signal either underpriced upside or overheated speculation. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish on silver than the consensus estimate.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, causing temporary price gaps. Polymarket may emphasize lower strike prices while Predict focuses on higher targets, reflecting each platform's user base risk appetite. Arbitrage opportunities, platform-specific market-making incentives, and regional trading hours also drive wedges between odds. These spreads typically narrow as informed traders exploit mispricings, but structural differences in contract design and participant composition can sustain modest divergence throughout the event window.
The market resolves at Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether silver's price has reached the specified threshold. Resolution is based on official price data from recognized commodity exchanges at the settlement time. Traders holding positions in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. The exact price source and methodology are defined in each platform's contract specifications to ensure transparent, auditable settlement.
Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data, and USD strength directly impact silver valuations. Industrial demand from solar, electronics, and automotive sectors can drive upside surprises. Geopolitical tensions, mining supply disruptions, and central bank purchases also influence price momentum. Macro risk-off sentiment typically boosts precious metals, while equity rallies and rising real rates can suppress silver. Economic recession fears, energy costs, and competing precious-metal narratives round out the catalyst landscape. Traders monitor these signals to adjust positions ahead of Jun 30, 2026.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.