TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian monarchist opposition figure, will physically enter Iran during 2026. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Predict shows a 8.9% probability that he enters Iran by December 31, 2026, with a 8.6% probability for entry by January 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible reporting including news sources, official statements, and verified travel documentation. Watch for any announced travel plans or geopolitical developments that might shift the likelihood of Pahlavi crossing into Iranian territory before the year-end deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Consensus of credible reporting (news sources, official statements, verified travel documentation)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution requires Reza Pahlavi to physically enter and be present within Iran's terrestrial geographic boundaries
- Entry into Iranian airspace or maritime territory alone does NOT trigger resolution
- Each market variant has a distinct deadline: March 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source is consensus of credible reporting; no single official oracle is specified
- YES resolution occurs if visit occurs between market creation (March 2, 2026) and the stated deadline; otherwise NO
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Airspace/Maritime Entry Only: If Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory but does not physically set foot on terrestrial Iran, the market resolves NO. Both platforms explicitly exclude these scenarios.
- Reporting Consensus Failure: If credible reporting sources conflict or no consensus emerges on whether a visit occurred, resolution may be delayed or require adjudication by platform operators. The markets do not specify a tiebreaker mechanism.
- Multiple Deadline Markets: Three separate markets exist with different deadlines. An earlier visit (e.g., by March 31) would resolve YES on all three markets; a visit between June 30 and December 31 would resolve YES only on the December 31 market.
- Market Creation Timing: Predict markets were created on March 2, 2026. Any visit before this date would not count. The March 31 market has only a 29-day window from creation.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on the deadline date for each market variant (March 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET), or immediately upon credible reporting of a visit if it occurs before the deadline.Kalshi
If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Predict differ fundamentally from polls: they reflect real-money bets on a binary outcome, not survey responses about opinion. Markets incorporate breaking news, diplomatic signals, and expert analysis in real time, whereas polls capture a snapshot of public sentiment. For a sensitive geopolitical event like Reza Pahlavi's potential return to Iran, prediction markets may be more responsive to regime changes, sanctions shifts, or exile community developments than traditional polling, making them a complementary but distinct signal.
Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Predict may show different implied probabilities due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and risk appetite. Kalshi currently reflects 8.8% while Predict shows , a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from distinct trader demographics, fee structures, and market-making strategies. Lower liquidity on one platform can amplify price swings from large trades, while geopolitical expertise concentrated on one exchange may drive consensus divergence. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether credible evidence confirms that Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian monarchist opposition figure, physically entered Iran at any point before that deadline. Verification typically relies on news reports, official statements, or documentation from reliable international sources. The binary outcome leaves no room for ambiguity: either he visits Iran or he does not by the cutoff date.
Key catalysts include major shifts in Iran's political leadership or regime stability, diplomatic breakthroughs between exile groups and Tehran, changes in sanctions or travel restrictions, and public statements from Reza Pahlavi or Iranian officials about his return. Regional conflicts, succession crises in Iran, or international pressure on the Islamic Republic could alter the calculus. Media reports of secret negotiations, security guarantees, or opposition coordination would likely spike trading volume and shift odds sharply. Proximity to the resolution date may also trigger volatility as uncertainty narrows.
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