TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Time left: 12d:20h:29m
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability stands at 4.5%. Resolution will be determined by official information from the Israeli government, supplemented by credible reporting if needed. Watch for any official announcements or statements from President Herzog's office as the June 30, 2026 deadline approaches, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Scope and Jurisdiction Mismatch. Polymarket explicitly targets Netanyahu and Israeli presidential clemency; Kalshi's rules reference an unnamed President and pardon counts with no Netanyahu condition, suggesting a U.S. presidential pardon volume market. The two markets are logically incompatible and measure different events.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets as if they are equivalent. Polymarket resolves on a single Netanyahu clemency event; Kalshi resolves on aggregate pardon counts. Confirm Kalshi's actual jurisdiction and underlying asset immediately. If Kalshi is a U.S. market, it should not be grouped with the Netanyahu event.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Netanyahu-specific market. Resolves Yes if Netanyahu receives a pardon, commutation, or clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution source: official Israeli government information and credible reporting consensus. Scope: one individual, one jurisdiction, one outcome.Kalshi:
Aggregate pardon count market. Eight rules covering all possible counts (0, 1, 2, 3-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25+) of persons pardoned/commuted/reprieved by an unnamed President before June 1, 2026. All rules resolve to Yes. No Netanyahu-specific condition. Scope: unclear jurisdiction, aggregate outcomes, no individual target.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets differ fundamentally from polls. Markets aggregate financial incentives and real-money stakes, rewarding accuracy over opinion. While traditional polls measure stated sentiment, prediction markets reflect what traders actually believe will occur, often incorporating private information and forward-looking analysis. For the Netanyahu pardon question, market odds reflect expectations about executive clemency decisions, legal developments, and political dynamics—factors that may diverge significantly from public opinion surveys or expert commentary.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different trader bases, regulatory jurisdictions, and liquidity pools. Kalshi shows 100.0% while Polymarket reflects different market sentiment. Differences arise from varying user demographics, contract specifications, leverage availability, and information flow timing. Traders on one platform may have different risk tolerances or access to breaking news, creating temporary price gaps. These spreads typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit opportunities, but structural differences in market design can sustain modest divergence.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Netanyahu receives an official pardon—typically from the U.S. President or relevant authority—before that deadline. The outcome is binary: either a pardon is granted and confirmed through official channels, or it is not. Traders should monitor announcements from the executive office, legal filings, and credible news sources for clarity on any clemency action.
Key catalysts include statements from the sitting U.S. President regarding clemency intentions, developments in Netanyahu's legal cases, diplomatic pressure from Israel or other allies, and shifts in domestic political sentiment. Congressional activity, media investigations, and court rulings affecting his legal exposure could also influence pardon likelihood. Major geopolitical events or changes in administration priorities may reshape trader expectations. Watch for official announcements, credible reporting on executive deliberations, and any formal pardon petitions or legal filings.
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