TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by July 31?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
kalshi

Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by July 31?

Total volume:
$148,400
Volume 24h:
$8,995
67%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$25,385
15%

Above $2.00

 - Kalshi

Above $2.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 28, 2026

Time left: 01d:00h:50m

Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $2.00

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$4,845
0%
680%
$4,493
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $1.75

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,609
0%
0%
$1,453
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $1.00

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,366
0%
0%
$1,350
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $1.25

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,363
0%
0%
$1,349
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $2.25

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$1,469
0%
42%
$1,175
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $2.50

Trade
96%
2%
Yes 99¢No 5¢
4¢
N/A
$5,370
36%
249%
$2,489
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $2.75

Trade
54%
8%
Yes 59¢No 60¢
19¢
N/A
$16,296
18%
224%
$4,105
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $3.00

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$6,286
19%
102%
$1,788
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $3.25

Trade
2%
4%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$3,347
0.3%
64%
$1,513
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $3.75

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,094
48%
96%
$2,468
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $3.50

Trade
1%
4%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$5,937
25%
60%
$1,871
1d 50m
active
kalshi

Above $4.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,431
55%
70%
$1,331
1d 50m
active
polymarket

↑$170B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

↑$165B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,756
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

↑$180B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↑$190B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,208
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↑$200B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,357
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↑$250B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,686
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↓$145B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↓$150B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,055
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↓$140B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

↑$225B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets tracks whether Databricks' private market valuation, as reported by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), will reach specific thresholds by July 31, 2026. The markets resolve based on NPM data or public market capitalization if Databricks goes public before the deadline.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All Databricks valuation markets share identical resolution logic: NPM data for private valuations and public market capitalization post-IPO, with the highest achieved valuation determining outcome.Primary resolution logic: Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) data pre-IPO; official exchange trading data and reported share counts post-IPO

Core resolution logic:

  • Use NPM-published private market valuations up to July 31, 2026
  • If Databricks goes public, use official IPO price and public market capitalization through July 31, 2026
  • Resolution is based on the highest valuation achieved at any point during the period
  • Revisions to published NPM data are ignored unless correcting clearly erroneous data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • IPO before deadline: Switch to public market capitalization using official exchange data and reported share counts
  • Acquisition/merger: Only consider valuations achieved prior to the transaction; no post-transaction valuations count
  • NPM data cessation: Resolve based on available NPM data and any applicable public market data post-IPO
Timing: Markets resolve by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, with possible extension until August 4, 2026 if NPM data remains unpublishedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the NVIDIA H100 compute price per hour at 4 PM ET on August 28, 2026, as reported by Ornn. If Ornn does not publish data for that exact time, the most recent available data prior to expiration will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the data will not affect resolution. All prices refer to the USD iteration of the index and are rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a specific threshold: if the reported price exceeds the threshold (e.g., $1.00, $1.25, up to $4.00), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.