TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$142,891,824
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,211,057,904
339,560
Markets across
34,155
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,672
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
↑ 1520
- Polymarket
↑ 1520 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
$
Description
This group of markets assesses whether any AI model will achieve specific Chatbot Arena scores by December 31, 2026. The markets differ in their target scores and, in some cases, specific model requirements.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Divergence in both threshold definitions and model specificity requirements between Polymarket and KalshiHero tip: Focus trading on Polymarket for general AI model markets and Kalshi for Opus-specific markets. Verify model names and exact score thresholds before trading.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Any AI model must reach the specified Chatbot Arena score on the Text Arena Leaderboard (style control unchecked) by December 31, 2026
- Kalshi: Only models named Opus 4.9 or greater are considered, and they must score above the specified threshold on the Arena AI Text Score (style control removed) before January 1, 2027
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether any model designated as Opus 4.9 or higher reaches specified performance thresholds on the Arena AI Text Score (with style control removed) before January 1, 2027. Each market corresponds to a distinct score threshold, ranging from Above 1460 to Above 1515. If any qualifying model meets or exceeds its respective threshold before the deadline, that market resolves positively. When multiple models are introduced, only the highest-scoring model counts, and subsequent models do not affect the outcome. The resolution depends solely on the first model to meet any of the defined thresholds, with each threshold representing an independent condition for its respective market.
