TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$84,940,147
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,022,755
334,261
Markets across
33,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,574
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
October 31
- Polymarket
October 31 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Latest in Science and Technology
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
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Description
This event group tracks whether Google's next Gemini Pro model will be released by various specified dates in 2026. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the model is made publicly accessible by the deadline, following strict criteria for public availability.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use identical definitions for 'Pro' labeling, public accessibility, and date boundaries — no divergence in resolution logic exists between Polymarket and Predict.Primary resolution logic: Official Google announcements and public accessibility verificationCore resolution logic:
- Any Gemini model labeled 'Pro' (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-4.0-pro-preview) released after market creation and before the specified date qualifies
- Public accessibility required: open beta, open waitlist, or explicit general-public labeling — closed beta or private access does not qualify
- GA promotions of existing previews (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) qualify if they meet public accessibility standards
- Labeling errors or placeholder text that does not correspond to actual public access are excluded
Edge cases & clarifications:
- GA promotion of preview model: If Google upgrades a preview model to GA status and makes it publicly accessible, it qualifies even if the version number hasn't changed
- Rolling waitlist: An open rolling waitlist where anyone can sign up and eventually gain access qualifies as public accessibility
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
