TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$149,897,520
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,214,596,905
340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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Above 102
- Kalshi
Above 102 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Sep 14, 2026
Latest in Financials
Time left: 17d:06h:33m
Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102 ?
$
Description
This group of markets predicts whether Amazon (AMZN) will close above specific price thresholds during the week of August 10. Different platforms have varying thresholds and resolution criteria.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Threshold and source divergence: Kalshi uses credit card spend data, Polymarket uses stock price closes, and Opinion lacks clarity.Hero tip: Focus trades on Polymarket for clear rules. Avoid Kalshi/Opinion unless you can verify their data sources and methods.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves if Carbon Arc Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend (August 2026) exceeds thresholds from 102 to 112.
- Polymarket: Resolves if AMZN’s Pyth closing price on the week’s last trading day is above specified dollar amounts (e.g., $245, $250).
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.
Kalshi
All markets share a common framework: each resolves to 'Yes' if the Carbon Arc Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend index for August 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 102 to 112). The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. store visits, with values above 100 indicating growth and below 100 indicating decline. Determination is based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for August 2026, and any subsequent corrections or revisions do not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, matched to the same calendar days as the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. Daily updates to the panel ensure timely resolution, with all markets adhering strictly to the initial reported value to maintain consistency across thresholds.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Amazon (AMZN) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Amazon (AMZN), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Amazon (AMZN) trades governs.
