TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Mariah Carey
- Kalshi
Mariah Carey - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 26, 2026
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year?
$
Description
Various recording artists may achieve a number-one song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart by the end of 2026.
Kalshi
Each artist's market resolves to Yes if they achieve a #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 by the December 26, 2026 chart issue, including songs where they are credited as a featured artist. Resolution is determined by Billboard's official rankings, and these markets are not endorsed by Billboard. The specific chart issue date of December 26, 2026 serves as the final measurement point for all outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often diverge from initial analyst forecasts regarding which artist will have the #1 hit song. While music critics and industry experts offer opinions, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are actively putting capital behind their beliefs. This difference can arise from factors analysts might overlook, such as unexpected viral trends or shifts in listener preferences. It's common to see discrepancies, especially early in the year, as the market incorporates new information and reacts to evolving dynamics in the music industry.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different artists having a #1 hit. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows how many contracts are available at various price points, giving traders insight into potential liquidity and order flow. As more trades occur, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the probabilities.
This market resolves around Dec 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the year’s #1 hit song is verified against credible public reporting, specifically the official year-end Billboard Hot 100 chart. The song holding the top position on that chart will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on the final, official chart data released by Billboard, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result. Traders should monitor Billboard’s announcements as the end of the year approaches.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. The release of major albums from popular artists, unexpected viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok, and shifts in radio airplay could all influence trader sentiment. A surprise collaboration between two major artists or a breakthrough hit from an emerging artist could also dramatically alter the odds. Furthermore, any news regarding artist tours, promotional activities, or critical acclaim can impact the perceived chances of an artist achieving a #1 hit song throughout the year.
