TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Will Lil Baby have a #1 album this year?
$
Description
Whether various musical artists achieve a number-one position on the Billboard 200 album chart by December 26, 2026.
Kalshi
If Drake has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Weeknd has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Bieber has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ariana Grande has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ed Sheeran has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Travis Scott has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eminem has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kanye West / Ye has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rihanna has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Billie Eilish has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kendrick Lamar has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Post Malone has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If J Balvin has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Future has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ozuna has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Coldplay has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicki Minaj has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Brown has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dua Lipa has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If David Guetta has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lana Del Rey has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lil Wayne has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If 21 Savage has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rauw Alejandro has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anuel AA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If SZA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If KAROL G has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Khalid has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lady Gaga has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lil Baby has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Maroon 5 has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Beyoncé has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Calvin Harris has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lil Uzi Vert has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sia has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Young Thug has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Linkin Park has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Doja Cat has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shawn Mendes has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sam Smith has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Quavo has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Trippie Redd has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If YoungBoy Never Broke Again has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tyga has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lil Peep has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Charlie Puth has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luke Combs has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jason Derulo has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If USHER has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kodak Black has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Timberlake has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bebe Rexha has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Swae Lee has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If BLACKPINK has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kali Uchis has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daft Punk has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tate McRae has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Big Sean has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Migos has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Polo G has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pharrell Williams has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Kid LAROI has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kid Cudi has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Offset has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If 2 Chainz has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fall Out Boy has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lewis Capaldi has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joji has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Roddy Ricch has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daniel Caesar has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Camilo has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If NF has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bryson Tiller has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stray Kids has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Logic has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Charli xcx has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lil Nas X has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If PARTYNEXTDOOR has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Mayer has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If ROSALÍA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Megan Thee Stallion has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If mgk has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mariah Carey has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Childish Gambino has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lil Yachty has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fred again.. has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Warren has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chappell Roan has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Benson Boone has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If PinkPantheress has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ice Spice has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sabrina Carpenter has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tyla has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Doechii has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivia Dean has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Leon Thomas has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If sombr has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If KATSEYE has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Marías has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Addison Rae has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lola Young has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ella Langley has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gracie Abrams has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shaboozey has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Frank Ocean has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Noah Kahan has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Selena Gomez has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivia Rodrigo has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kacey Musgraves has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in an artist achieving a #1 album. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular artist, the price of their contract increases, and vice versa. This creates a constantly updating assessment of each artist's chances, driven by supply and demand. The current volume of $961,347 demonstrates active participation in shaping these probabilities.
This market resolves around Dec 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which artist has the highest-ranking album on the Billboard 200 chart for the calendar year. The Billboard 200 is a standard industry ranking based on album sales, track equivalent albums, and streaming equivalent albums. The final ranking will be used to determine the winning outcome in this market, reflecting the most commercially successful album of the year.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected album releases from major artists, particularly surprise drops, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Critical reception of new albums – both positive and negative reviews – can also influence trading activity. Major award show performances or wins could boost an artist’s popularity and, consequently, their chances in this market. Finally, shifts in streaming numbers and album sales data throughout the year will continually update the perceived probabilities, making this a dynamic and responsive market until it resolves.
