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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?
polymarket

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace by August 31?

Jun 24, 2026, 3:09 PM EST - Aug 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$98,028
Volume 24h:
$1,352
34%
Liquidity:
$197,211
16%
Open interest:
$29,779N/A

Abbas Araghchi

 - Polymarket

Abbas Araghchi - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:02h:43m

Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

2%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 2.7¢ buys you 3,704 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $3,704 | Net Profit: $3,604 Multiplier: 37.04x | ROI: 3,604% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Abbas Araghchi

Trade
2%
Yes 2.7¢No 98.4¢
1.1¢
$10,284
$9,304
0.16%
3%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Ishaq Dar

Trade
2%
Yes 3.1¢No 98.9¢
2¢
$9,629
$2,920
0%
0%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Jared Kushner

Trade
2%
Yes 2.3¢No 98.7¢
1¢
$10,475
$14,151
0.07%
5%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

J.D. Vance

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.6¢
0.7¢
$12,121
$11,267
0.13%
0.41%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 99¢
1.4¢
$564
$1,750
0%
1%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Rafael Grossi

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.6¢
2.6¢
$9,050
$959
0%
8%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Steve Witkoff

Trade
2%
Yes 2.3¢No 99¢
1.3¢
$10,935
$13,702
0%
1%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.3¢
1.7¢
$10,649
$12,312
0.08%
2%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

Trade
2%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.3¢
1.6¢
$9,192
$311
16%
20%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Kazem Gharibabadi

Trade
1%
12%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.5¢
1.9¢
$9,295
$1,752
0%
0.84%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
disputed
polymarket

Marco Rubio

Trade
1%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.6¢
1.8¢
$11,886
$7,782
0.68%
2%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Pete Hegseth

Trade
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.7¢
2¢
$10,111
$2,632
0%
0%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Nick Stewart

Trade
1%
21%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.8¢
2.1¢
$9,160
$48
36%
36%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Majid Takht-Ravanchi

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 2¢No 99.8¢
1.8¢
$9,734
$3,405
3%
5%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Ahmad Vahidi

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.6¢
0.8¢
$11,788
$4,782
0.02%
5%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Masoud Pezeshkian

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.5¢
0.4¢
$9,448
$1,772
0%
3%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$17,556
$1,146
31%
262%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Esmail Qaani

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$9,481
$862
7%
81%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
polymarket

Donald Trump

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$15,853
$7,171
0%
10%
N/A
4d 2h 43m
active
Total markets: 19

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The US-Iran peace negotiations market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether a round of US-Iran peace negotiations will occur by August 31, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes, with the current price reflecting the collective probability estimate. The dashboard displays the leading outcome, live price movements, and volume data, allowing participants to monitor how market sentiment evolves as diplomatic developments unfold. This transparent price discovery mechanism aggregates trader beliefs into a single, continuously updated probability figure.

Prediction market odds and traditional polling measure different signals. Polls capture public opinion at a snapshot in time, while this market reflects traders' real-money bets on whether a specific diplomatic event will materialize. Markets often incorporate forward-looking information—geopolitical analysis, expert commentary, and breaking news—faster than polls update. Traders have financial incentive to forecast accurately, which can make market odds more responsive to changing conditions. However, both tools are imperfect; comparing them reveals whether the public and betting participants hold aligned or divergent views on the likelihood of US-Iran peace talks by the deadline.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into continuous odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Buyers of yes shares profit if a round of US-Iran peace negotiations occurs before August 31, 2026; buyers of no shares profit if it does not. The price of each share reflects the implied probability, ranging from near 0 to near 100 percent. As traders place orders, the price adjusts instantly, ensuring the market remains liquid and responsive to new information or sentiment shifts throughout the event window.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Yes shares pay out if credible news sources document that a round of US-Iran peace negotiations has taken place by that date. No shares pay out if no such round occurs within the timeframe. Resolution hinges on whether the specific event—a formal or substantive round of talks—is documented and meets the market's definition, verified against established news outlets and official statements.

Major diplomatic announcements, statements from US or Iranian officials, and shifts in regional tensions can significantly move odds. Positive signals—such as public commitments to talks, mediation by neutral parties, or de-escalation measures—typically boost yes odds. Conversely, military incidents, sanctions escalations, or hostile rhetoric tend to lower them. Media coverage of behind-the-scenes negotiations, UN involvement, or statements from allied nations also influence trader sentiment. As the August 31 deadline approaches, any concrete scheduling of talks or formal cancellations will likely trigger sharp price movements, making this market sensitive to both headline news and nuanced diplomatic developments.