TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Video games released this year
kalshi

Video games released this year

Jan 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$294,375
Volume 24h:
$6,280N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$100,106
0%

Phantom Blade Zero

 - Kalshi

Phantom Blade Zero - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Phantom Blade Zero release this year?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% Illiquid market 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Phantom Blade Zero

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$957
0%
0%
$853
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,399
0%
0.21%
$2,389
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Grand Theft Auto VI

Trade
98%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$9,558
0%
3%
$4,562
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

The Duskbloods

Trade
41%
Yes 41¢No 61¢
2¢
N/A
$4,120
0.62%
12%
$2,533
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Final Fantasy VII Remake #3

Trade
5%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$27,265
0%
0%
$3,406
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Haunted Chocolatier

Trade
5%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$2,579
0%
0%
$1,210
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Light No Fire

Trade
4%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
N/A
$8,687
0%
0%
$2,288
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

ARK 2

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$2,128
0%
0%
$738
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

The Elder Scrolls 6

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$7,411
0%
0%
$3,273
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Iron Man

Trade
3%
Yes 6¢No 99¢
5¢
N/A
$3,166
0%
0%
$200
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Half-Life 3

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$104,688
0%
0.28%
$39,905
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Squadron 42

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$73,519
0%
0.99%
$13,508
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Super Mario Galaxy 3

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$5,610
0%
0.29%
$2,402
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Kingdom Hearts 4

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$16,597
0%
0%
$3,828
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Halo: Campaign Evolved

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,109
N/A
N/A
$7,856
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Control Resonant

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,251
N/A
N/A
$6,251
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Gears of War E-Day

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,785
N/A
N/A
$4,185
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Wolverine

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,546
N/A
N/A
$719
2mo 6d
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

A video game will receive its full release on at least one platform in the United States before the start of 2027.

Kalshi

Each game resolves to Yes upon full release before January 1, 2027 on any platform in the United States. Full release means the game is commercially available to the general public, not in early access, beta, or limited release phases. Release on any platform (console, PC, mobile, etc.) satisfies the condition. The resolution is based on the official release date in the United States market.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional pre-release polls or industry analyst predictions. While analysts might focus on announced titles and developer track records, the market incorporates a broader range of information, including rumors, development progress, and even potential delays. This can lead to discrepancies, with the market sometimes assigning higher or lower probabilities to specific releases than initially anticipated by experts.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether specific video games will be released in 2024. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of release. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and evolving market price. The current volume traded is $294,375, indicating the level of interest and activity in these predictions.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the release dates of the video games are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether a game is officially launched and available for purchase to the general public during the calendar year 2024. Any delays or changes to release schedules announced after the resolution date will not affect the outcome of this market. The focus is on the actual release status as of the specified resolution timeframe.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Official announcements regarding release dates, including delays or cancellations, would be major catalysts. Positive or negative reception to gameplay demos or trailers could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about development challenges, such as studio closures or significant technical hurdles, could lower the probability of a game’s release. Conversely, positive industry buzz or strong pre-order numbers might increase the odds. Any major news impacting the video game industry as a whole could also influence trading activity.