TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Which flavors will JUUL relaunch in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Which flavors will JUUL relaunch in 2026?

Total volume:
$65,284
Volume 24h:
$46
133%
Liquidity:
$1,372
327%
Open interest:
$19,895
0.12%

Mint

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will JUUL relaunch Mint flavor by 2027?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 6% Low liquidity 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Mint

Trade
98%
5%
Yes 98¢No 95¢
93¢
$36
$160
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Mint

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
N/A
$21,341
0.22%
2%
$7,522
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
56%
Yes 56¢No 92¢
Avg: 48¢Max: 93¢
polymarket

Fruit Medley

Trade
97%
Yes 97¢No 95¢
92¢
$37
$84
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Fruit Medley

Trade
6%
Yes 8¢No 98¢
6¢
N/A
$444
0%
0%
$356
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
51.5%
Yes 52.5¢No 96.5¢
Avg: 49¢Max: 92¢
polymarket

Cucumber

Trade
93%
3%
Yes 93¢No 95¢
88¢
$40
$159
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Cucumber

Trade
6%
Yes 9¢No 99¢
8¢
N/A
$5,401
0%
0%
$2,579
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
49.5%
Yes 51¢No 97¢
Avg: 48¢Max: 88¢
polymarket

Mango

Trade
84%
Yes 84¢No 95¢
79¢
$88
$187
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Mango

Trade
3%
Yes 6¢No 97¢
3¢
N/A
$28,637
0%
0.75%
$6,534
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
43.5%
Yes 45¢No 96¢
Avg: 41¢Max: 79¢
polymarket

Crème Brûlée

Trade
17%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
$1,172
$441
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Crème Brûlée

Trade
2%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
N/A
$1,252
0%
4%
$591
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
9.5%
Yes 13.5¢No 91.5¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 7¢
kalshi

Cool Mint

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 96¢
8¢
N/A
$6,358
0%
0.66%
$2,092
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Classic Tobacco

View
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Menthol Classic

View
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$813
N/A
N/A
$212
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Café Latte

View
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Bubblegum

View
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Watermelon

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Pineapple Lemonade

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Banana

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Apple Orchard

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 1w
No
Total markets: 19

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JUUL commercially relaunches the specified flavor in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A relaunch is defined as JUUL making the specified flavor commercially available for purchase by consumers in the United States, whether through retail, direct-to-consumer, or other distribution channels. A limited release, test market, or sampling program will not constitute a relaunch. A flavor will be considered to be the same as the specified flavor as long as the listed flavor name is entirely included in the released flavor’s name (e.g. if Juul launches “Cool Cucumber”, the option for “Cucumber” would resolve to “Yes”). Minor differences in capitalization, punctuation, or accenting will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Juul; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: This market resolves based on commercial availability in the United States only. International relaunches will not be considered for resolution purposes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket differ in flavor coverage (14 vs. 5 flavors), definition precision (Kalshi lacks exclusion of limited releases), and name-matching logic (Polymarket includes substring matching). These differences create potential for conflicting resolutions on overlapping flavors.Hero tip: Traders should treat Polymarket's definition as the stricter standard. For the 5 overlapping flavors (Mint, Cucumber, Crème Brûlée, Mango, Fruit Medley), a limited or test-market release will resolve differently across platforms. Confirm JUUL's official announcement specifies nationwide commercial availability, not regional or limited trials. Use official JUUL statements and credible news consensus as tiebreakers.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 14 individual flavor markets, each binary. Resolution rule: 'If JUUL releases [flavor] to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.' No definition of release type (limited vs. commercial). No geographic scope specified.
  • Polymarket: 5 flavor markets (Mint, Cucumber, Crème Brûlée, Mango, Fruit Medley) with explicit definition: 'A relaunch is defined as JUUL making the specified flavor commercially available for purchase by consumers in the United States... A limited release, test market, or sampling program will not constitute a relaunch.' Includes substring name-matching logic and US-only scope.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JUUL commercially relaunches the specified flavor in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A relaunch is defined as JUUL making the specified flavor commercially available for purchase by consumers in the United States, whether through retail, direct-to-consumer, or other distribution channels. A limited release, test market, or sampling program will not constitute a relaunch. A flavor will be considered to be the same as the specified flavor as long as the listed flavor name is entirely included in the released flavor’s name (e.g. if Juul launches “Cool Cucumber”, the option for “Cucumber” would resolve to “Yes”). Minor differences in capitalization, punctuation, or accenting will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Juul; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: This market resolves based on commercial availability in the United States only. International relaunches will not be considered for resolution purposes.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which flavors JUUL releases to the public before January 1, 2027. Each outcome represents a distinct flavor: Mango, Mint, Cucumber, Fruit Medley, Crème Brûlée, or Cool Mint. A Yes resolution occurs for each flavor that becomes publicly available within the specified timeframe.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi to track consensus odds on which JUUL flavors will return to market in 2026. The combined group has generated trading volume of $65,121, with $263 in the last 24 hours. By monitoring prices across both platforms simultaneously, traders and analysts can identify which flavor relaunches command the strongest conviction, spot arbitrage opportunities, and watch how sentiment shifts as regulatory or company announcements emerge.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders with skin in the game, often incorporating forward-looking signals faster than traditional analyst reports. Market odds on JUUL flavor relaunches are driven by regulatory developments, company statements, and consumer demand signals rather than historical consensus. While formal analyst forecasts on JUUL's specific 2026 flavor strategy remain limited, prediction market prices serve as a crowdsourced alternative view, aggregating dispersed information from participants tracking FDA policy, litigation, and brand positioning.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price the same flavor relaunch outcomes differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and how each platform frames the underlying question. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's top outcome focuses on timing and regulatory approval pathways, while Polymarket's framing emphasizes binary relaunch likelihood by 2027. Differences in trader sophistication, geographic concentration, and risk appetite across platforms can also create persistent spreads of 84.0 percentage points or more, creating opportunities for cross-platform traders.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on official JUUL announcements, regulatory approvals, and public availability of specific flavors in the U.S. market during the 2026 calendar year. Outcomes are determined by verifiable evidence of commercial relaunch, such as product listings, press releases, or retail availability data. Markets track individual flavors separately, so each outcome resolves independently based on whether that flavor actually returns to sale.

Key catalysts include FDA regulatory decisions on flavor restrictions, JUUL's corporate strategy announcements, litigation outcomes affecting product liability, and shifts in parent company Altria's portfolio priorities. Consumer demand signals, competitor flavor launches, and state-level tobacco regulations can also shift market odds. International relaunch news may preview U.S. strategy. Earnings calls, management commentary on brand repositioning, and any settlement agreements tied to flavor availability will likely trigger sharp repricing across both Polymarket and Kalshi.