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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket
opinion

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Total volume:
$349,090
Volume 24h:
$4,194
1,213%
Liquidity:
$18,983
2%
Open interest:
$107,620
4%

None in 2026

 - Polymarket

None in 2026 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% High Projected APY: 565% Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

None in 2026

Trade
67%
Yes 71¢No 37¢
8¢
$602
$27,809
0%
0.22%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Claude

Trade
18%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
N/A
$79,149
0.02%
0.91%
$29,575
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
14%
Yes 19¢No 90¢
9¢
$5,442
$20,553
0%
0.1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

Claude

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.3%
Yes 19¢No 86¢
Avg: 7.7¢Max: 13¢
polymarket

Google

Trade
16%
Yes 18.7¢No 87¢
5.7¢
$1,650
$15,752
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Gemini

Trade
15%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$36,127
3%
5%
$18,521
2mo 6d
active
opinion

Gemini

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

ChatGPT

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$43,677
5%
5%
$23,839
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
4%
Yes 6.8¢No 98.9¢
5.7¢
$1,972
$16,205
0%
0.35%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

ChatGPT

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.4%
Yes 6.9¢No 96.4¢
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 5.7¢
kalshi

Grok

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$23,480
4%
5%
$13,369
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Other

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$20,337
0%
0.24%
$11,743
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Qwen

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,833
0%
0.83%
$5,746
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Kimi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,098
0%
2%
$2,944
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Ernie

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,882
0%
3%
$1,882
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

xAI

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.7¢
0.8¢
$2,055
$10,541
1%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$2,211
$11,427
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$1,951
$13,832
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,998
$9,913
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,102
$9,474
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks which company’s AI model will first reach a score of 1550 or higher on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026. Currently, the consensus probability that no company will achieve this milestone is 78.0%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. The market will resolve based on if a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before January 1, 2027. With a 14.0% probability, Claude is currently the second-most likely model to reach this benchmark. Keep an eye on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard as we approach the January 1, 2027 deadline to see if any models surpass the 1550 threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes 'None' and 'Other' resolution outcomes, while Kalshi only considers the listed companies. Kalshi also has a different resolution timing.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi markets will not resolve if a company not listed achieves the target score. Polymarket provides a more complete set of outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if OpenAI (or another listed company) reaches 1550+ on Chatbot Arena by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Includes 'None in 2026' and 'Other' outcomes. Source: https://lmarena.ai/
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Alibaba, Moonshot AI, xAI, Google, Baidu, Anthropic, or OpenAI reaches 1550 on Text Arena before January 1, 2027. Only considers these companies; no 'None' or 'Other' outcome. Source: Text Arena leaderboard.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Kalshi

If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by OpenAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by xAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by Moonshot AI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by Baidu is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a model by Other is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Opinion

Resolves Yes if a model by the company specified in the option is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control). Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks the progress of leading AI models in the Chatbot Arena, specifically focusing on which company’s AI will first achieve a score of 1550. The current consensus view, aggregating data from both platforms, indicates a competitive landscape. Total volume across both venues currently stands at $349,090, with $4,342 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects significant interest in the Chatbot Arena AI race and the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. The dashboard provides a real-time view of predictions and market sentiment.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically rely on fundamental analysis and expert opinions, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the market reflects a dynamic assessment of each company’s capabilities and progress toward the 1550 benchmark. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst predictions can arise due to differing information sets, biases, or the market's ability to quickly incorporate new data. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator of potential outcomes in the AI space.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi are common in aggregated markets. These differences can stem from variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and the specific rules governing each platform. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? at 67.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? at 18.0%. Furthermore, differing levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform can contribute to divergent pricing. The spread between the platforms is currently 49.0.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on the official Chatbot Arena leaderboard, identifying the first company whose AI model reaches a score of 1550. The outcome will be verified against publicly available data, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders should monitor the Chatbot Arena leaderboard as Jan 1, 2027 approaches to stay informed about the potential resolution triggers for this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major announcements regarding AI model updates from leading companies, breakthroughs in AI research, or shifts in the Chatbot Arena rankings are all potential catalysts. Unexpected performance improvements or regressions in any of the competing AI models would also likely move the market. Public perception and media coverage surrounding the AI race could also influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the market prices. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.