TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
kalshi

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

Dec 10, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,262,167
Volume 24h:
$17,952
459%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$328,482
0.82%

Unusual Machines

 - Kalshi

Unusual Machines - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Unusual Machines?

23%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 27¢ buys you 370 shares | Odds: 23% Total Payout: $370 | Net Profit: $270 Multiplier: 3.70x | ROI: 270% APY not meaningful 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Unusual Machines

Trade
23%
4%
Yes 27¢No 76¢
3¢
N/A
$11,120
2%
8%
$3,879
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Neros Technologies

Trade
16%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
2¢
N/A
$9,155
0%
0.1%
$2,487
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Anduril

Trade
15%
2%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
N/A
$204,120
0.48%
2%
$64,958
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Micron

Trade
13%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
N/A
$31,978
8%
9%
$11,309
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

OpenAI

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
N/A
$95,290
0%
0.52%
$28,179
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Eli Lilly

Trade
12%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
N/A
$15,994
0.69%
1%
$5,239
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Nvidia

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
2¢
N/A
$60,245
0.05%
0.74%
$13,295
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

IonQ

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
2¢
N/A
$31,551
0%
0%
$10,350
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Anthropic

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$100,649
0.44%
0.7%
$22,846
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Lockheed Martin

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
N/A
$60,449
0.02%
0.71%
$14,208
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Boeing

Trade
8%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
N/A
$29,624
0%
0.03%
$9,415
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

TikTok US

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
N/A
$10,693
0.23%
0.69%
$3,346
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Performance Drone Works

Trade
8%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
2¢
N/A
$7,480
0.51%
2%
$3,302
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

TSMC

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$30,535
1%
5%
$10,684
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Pfizer

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$11,727
0%
0%
$3,481
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Freeport-McMoRan

Trade
6%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
N/A
$9,394
0.08%
0.08%
$2,941
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Palantir

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
N/A
$83,572
0.15%
0.27%
$22,773
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Spirit Airlines

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$310,707
0%
0.23%
$62,122
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Rigetti Computing

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59,987
N/A
N/A
$13,768
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

D-Wave Quantum

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$46,682
N/A
N/A
$10,951
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

GlobalFoundries

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,215
N/A
N/A
$8,951
2mo 6d
Yes
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks whether the US federal government will take an ownership stake of more than 0% in either Unusual Machines or Performance Drone Works. Currently, Kalshi gives a 35.0% probability to the US government taking a stake in Unusual Machines, and a 33.0% probability to the US government taking a stake in Performance Drone Works. The market resolves based on whether the US government has taken a stake in either company before January 1, 2027, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on any announcements regarding government contracts or investments scheduled before the resolution date of January 1, 2027, as these will likely be key indicators of the outcome.

Kalshi

A qualifying stake requires any part of the United States federal government to acquire direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests in the specified company or legal vehicle. Indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity count toward satisfaction. Pre-existing government stakes count; ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Once the threshold of any stake is crossed at any point before January 1, 2027, that market resolves to Yes regardless of subsequent changes in ownership levels. Non-equity instruments such as bonds or loans do not qualify. Stakes held by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the federal government count. Ownership can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default metric unless otherwise specified.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US company stake market tracks the current odds for each company listed, along with a price history showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $4,717, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,262,167. This allows you to see which companies are attracting the most interest and how sentiment is shifting as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on potential US government investments.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional analyst forecasts, as the types of companies and the specific nature of a US government ‘stake’ are broad. However, the market reflects a collective assessment of probabilities based on real money at risk, potentially incorporating factors analysts might overlook or weigh differently. This differs from polls or expert opinions, which are subject to biases and may not accurately reflect the likelihood of these events occurring. The aggregated wisdom of traders in this market provides a unique perspective on the potential for government investment.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a stake will be taken in a particular company. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, with a chance percentage of 23.0%, is Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?, and it has seen a volume of $1,262,167 traded. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether the US government announces a stake of above 0% in any of the listed companies during the specified timeframe. The determination will be based on official announcements and publicly available documentation regarding government investments. The market will settle based on whether these events have occurred as verified against credible public sources, providing a clear and objective outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any announcements regarding potential government investment in specific companies, particularly those related to national security or strategic industries, would likely cause price shifts. Changes in government policy, such as new initiatives to support domestic manufacturing or technological innovation, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected geopolitical events or economic developments could also play a role, as they may alter the government’s priorities and investment strategies. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding how this market evolves.