TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jun 30, 2027
Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday?
$
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of specific actors appearing as particular characters in the upcoming film, Avengers: Doomsday. Currently, the consensus probability of Hugh Jackman appearing as Wolverine is 94.5%. This forecast aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., or the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday. Keep an eye on July 1, 2027, as this is the current estimated date for resolution, coinciding with the potential release window for the film.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket utilize the same core resolution criteria: official casting announcements or appearance in the theatrical release.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., or the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is triggered by official casting announcements.
- Resolution is triggered by appearance in the domestic theatrical cut of the film.
- Markets resolve to 'No' if the film is cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Multiple Castings: If multiple actors are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list is sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution.
- Film Delays: Delays to the film's release date do not impact resolution, provided the film is eventually released before the cancellation deadline.
Polymarket
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
Resolution is triggered by either official announcement or actual performance of an actor in a specified role. An official announcement alone—even if the film is later cancelled—results in Yes resolution. If multiple actors are announced for the same role (dual casting or alternating cast), all announced actors satisfy the payout criterion. The market resolves No if the film is cancelled without prior announcement of that actor, or if another person is announced as the sole exclusive performer for that role. Announcement or performance in any official capacity counts toward resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on studio announcements, insider information, and historical trends, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess probabilities. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when there’s significant uncertainty or limited public information. The market's dynamic pricing can incorporate subtle signals – like casting rumors or set photos – more quickly than traditional analysis, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of character appearances in Avengers: Doomsday.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance, which can influence trading behavior. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can impact price discovery; a market with higher volume generally has more efficient pricing. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? at 92.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday? at 91.0%, demonstrating these differing viewpoints.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official cast list released by Marvel Studios or verified through reliable sources covering the film's release. The market will determine which characters are officially credited with appearing in Avengers: Doomsday, regardless of the extent of their roles. Traders should monitor official announcements and reputable entertainment news outlets as the release date approaches for clarity on the final cast.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Official casting announcements from Marvel Studios would be the most direct catalyst, causing immediate price adjustments. Leaks or credible rumors regarding casting choices, even if unconfirmed, could also influence trading activity. Major trailers or promotional materials revealing character appearances would provide strong signals. Unexpected departures of actors from other projects, potentially freeing them up for a role in Avengers: Doomsday, could also shift probabilities. Any news related to production delays or changes in the film’s storyline could also affect the perceived likelihood of certain characters appearing.