TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
polymarket

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM EST - Nov 1, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$24,897
Volume 24h:
$716
91%
Liquidity:
$9,096
3%
Open interest:
$3,168N/A

No release by November 1

 - Polymarket

No release by November 1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?

47%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 47¢ buys you 213 shares | Odds: 47% Total Payout: $213 | Net Profit: $113 Multiplier: 2.13x | ROI: 113% High Projected APY: 6,406% 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by November 1

Trade
47%
1%
Yes 47¢No 54¢
$2,132
$20,856
3%
3,685%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 7–September 13

21%
2%
Yes 20.7¢No 98.5¢
19.2¢
$905
$921
0%
45%
N/A
2w 3d 4h
active
polymarket

September 21–September 27

6%
Yes 9.6¢No 96.7¢
6.3¢
$601
$491
19%
634%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
polymarket

October 12–October 18

5%
Yes No 98¢
$565
$317
0%
172%
N/A
1mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

Prior to August 31

4%
Yes 7.1¢No 98.8¢
5.9¢
$922
$358
3%
214%
N/A
4d 4h 51m
active
polymarket

September 28–October 4

4%
20%
Yes 6.5¢No 98.6¢
5.1¢
$615
$420
0%
529%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

October 5–October 11

3%
Yes 5.7¢No 99¢
4.7¢
$644
$300
0%
217%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

October 26–November 1

3%
Yes No 99.4¢
4.4¢
$616
$328
0%
209%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 14–September 20

2%
Yes 3.1¢No 99.1¢
2.2¢
$847
$292
0%
337%
N/A
3w 3d 4h
active
polymarket

October 19–October 25

2%
Yes 2.9¢No 99.2¢
2.1¢
$599
$337
0%
371%
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
active
polymarket

August 31–September 6

1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.9¢
1.7¢
$650
$277
0%
315%
N/A
1w 3d 4h
active
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.