TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$91,248,924
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,163,520,955
334,440
Markets across
33,346
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,559
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Before 2030
- Kalshi
Before 2030 - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2030
Latest in Science and Technology
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI?
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Intro
This market tracks whether OpenAI will publicly announce that it has achieved artificial general intelligence by the end of 2027. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that OpenAI announces AGI creation—stands at 39.7%, while the alternative outcome holds 19.8%. Resolution hinges on an official OpenAI announcement meeting the specified criteria, as defined by Kalshi's resolution source. Watch for any formal statements from OpenAI regarding AGI achievement through December 31, 2027, the final date for resolution eligibility.
Kalshi
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may publish timelines based on technical roadmaps and capability benchmarks, market prices incorporate broader uncertainty, funding constraints, and competitive dynamics. Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from participants with financial skin in the game, sometimes revealing skepticism or optimism that expert commentary alone may not capture. Comparing market odds to published analyst estimates can highlight where consensus differs most.
On Kalshi, the market tracks the outcome "Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI?" with current odds reflecting a 48.0% percent probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell binary shares that resolve to $1 if OpenAI makes an official AGI announcement or $0 if it does not. The price discovery process on Kalshi incorporates real-time trading, news flow, and evolving technical benchmarks. Volume and bid-ask spreads indicate market confidence in the outcome, with tighter spreads suggesting stronger consensus among participants.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2030. Resolution hinges on whether OpenAI issues an official announcement declaring the achievement of AGI before that date. The specific criteria—such as capability thresholds, internal validation, or public disclosure requirements—determine whether the announcement qualifies. Traders should monitor OpenAI's official communications, press releases, and regulatory filings for any formal AGI declaration. The outcome is binary: either OpenAI announces AGI creation or it does not by the deadline.
Key catalysts include OpenAI's product releases, research breakthroughs, and capability demonstrations. Major model upgrades, published papers on reasoning or autonomy, or announcements of new capabilities could shift market odds upward. Conversely, delays, technical setbacks, or competing definitions of AGI from industry bodies may lower probabilities. Regulatory developments, funding announcements, and statements from OpenAI leadership about AGI timelines also influence trader sentiment. Media coverage of AI safety concerns or competing AGI claims from other labs can create volatility in real-time pricing.
