TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$131,483,547
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,200,781,395
338,101
Markets across
34,156
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,657
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Before Jan 1, 2031
- Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2031 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2031
Latest in Science and Technology
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether any company will publicly announce the achievement of Artificial General Intelligence, a system capable of human-level or superhuman general reasoning across diverse domains. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that such an announcement will occur before January 1, 2031—currently stands at 83.0%. Resolution hinges on an official company announcement of AGI achievement, as defined by the resolution source. Watch for major AI lab announcements and capability demonstrations leading up to the January 1, 2031 deadline, as any credible claim of AGI attainment by a public or private company will trigger market resolution.
Kalshi
Resolution requires an official company announcement explicitly stating achievement, attainment, or development of Artificial General Intelligence or 'AGI.' Statements using qualified language such as 'AGI-like,' 'AGI-level,' 'near-AGI,' or 'toward AGI' do not qualify. A qualifying company must be either publicly traded or a privately held entity with verifiable corporate identity and coverage of its financing, valuation, or corporate profile by at least two major business news sources. The market resolves Yes if such an announcement occurs before the specified deadline. Multiple resolution dates are specified, with the earliest being July 1, 2026, and the latest being January 1, 2031, allowing for progressive resolution windows.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on AGI timelines, whereas analyst forecasts typically come from AI researchers, technology strategists, and consulting firms using qualitative reasoning. Market odds tend to incorporate broader sentiment and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes, while analyst estimates may reflect specialized technical knowledge but lack direct market discipline. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more optimistic or pessimistic than expert opinion on near-term AGI achievement. Both perspectives offer complementary signals for understanding AGI probability and timing expectations.
On Kalshi, the When will any company achieve AGI market is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability that any company will announce AGI achievement before July 1, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds stand at 80.0% chance, with $97,397 in total volume traded. Prices move based on order flow and trader sentiment, with each contract worth one dollar at resolution if the outcome occurs. The market structure incentivizes participants to trade based on their genuine beliefs about AGI timelines, making the price a direct measure of collective prediction market confidence.
The When will any company achieve AGI market resolves on Jan 1, 2031. Resolution is determined by whether any company has publicly announced achievement of Artificial General Intelligence by that deadline. The market tracks the specific outcome condition tied to credible company announcements and industry recognition of AGI milestones. Traders should monitor official company statements, press releases, and widely-reported technology breakthroughs as potential resolution triggers. The binary structure means the market settles based on whether the AGI achievement threshold has been met by the end date.
Key signals that could shift odds include major AI capability breakthroughs from leading labs, published research demonstrating general reasoning or transfer learning, regulatory announcements affecting AGI development timelines, and funding or acquisition activity in frontier AI companies. Statements from AI researchers and company executives about progress toward AGI could accelerate or delay market expectations. Unexpected setbacks in scaling laws, safety concerns, or compute constraints might lengthen perceived timelines. Competitive announcements from multiple companies racing toward AGI could compress probabilities. Macroeconomic shifts affecting AI investment and talent availability also influence trader conviction about near-term AGI feasibility.
