TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in June 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 14d:00h:24m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June?
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Description
This event group tracks whether Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock will reach specific price levels during regular trading hours in June 2026. The markets are structured as binary yes/no questions across six HIGH price targets ($510, $495, $480, $465, $450, $435, $420) and six LOW price targets ($405, $390, $375, $360, $345, $330, $315), with resolution based on 1-minute candle data from Pyth.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Pyth Network (Equity.US.MSFT/USD) 1-minute candle data; fallback to official primary exchange daily high/low prices if Pyth data unavailableCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if target price is reached at any point during June 2026 regular trading hours (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET)
- Resolution uses 1-minute candle final HIGH or LOW prices exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding
- Pre-market and after-hours trading prices are excluded from consideration
- In event of stock split or reverse split, target price is adjusted proportionally and resolution uses split-adjusted prices from Pyth
- If Pyth 1-minute candle data is unavailable due to outage or technical failure, official daily high/low price from primary exchange is used as fallback
- HIGH markets resolve YES if any 1-minute candle high equals or exceeds target; LOW markets resolve YES if any 1-minute candle low equals or falls below target
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Corporate Action (Stock Split): Target price is adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits, reverse splits, or similar corporate actions. Resolution uses historical price data as shown on Pyth after adjustments have been applied.
- Data Source Failure: If Pyth 1-minute candle data is unavailable due to system outage, data failure, or technical disruption, resolution falls back to official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange (typically NASDAQ for MSFT).
- Exact Price Match: For HIGH markets, price must equal or exceed target. For LOW markets, price must equal or fall below target. Prices are used exactly as published by Pyth without rounding.
- Trading Hours Boundary: Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) qualify. Any price movement outside these hours, including pre-market (before 9:30 AM) and after-hours (after 4:00 PM), is excluded.
- Multiple Candles in June: Market resolves YES if target is touched in ANY 1-minute candle during the entire month of June 2026, not just a specific date or session.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after June 2026 concludes (on or after July 1, 2026), based on historical 1-minute candle data from Pyth covering all regular trading hours throughout June 2026.Polymarket
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in June 2026?
Predict
What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in June 2026?
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences between Polymarket and Predict odds can stem from distinct user bases, liquidity depth, fee structures, and regional trading patterns. Polymarket may attract different trader demographics or have tighter spreads, while Predict might see concentrated bets from institutional or retail cohorts. Timing lags in order-book updates and variations in how each platform handles edge cases also contribute. These price gaps create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, marking the end of the June 2026 observation window. Resolution hinges on whether Microsoft's stock price reaches the specified target level at any point during that period. Official closing prices, intraday highs, and volume-weighted averages may all factor into the determination depending on the platform's criteria. Traders should review each exchange's exact settlement rules before placing bets to ensure clarity on how the outcome will be verified.
Key catalysts include Microsoft's quarterly earnings reports, cloud and AI revenue guidance, competitive developments in enterprise software and generative AI, macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, and broader market corrections. Regulatory actions on antitrust or data privacy could also impact sentiment. Geopolitical events, interest rate changes, and shifts in AI adoption rates across Fortune 500 companies will influence whether traders believe MSFT can reach the target price by June 2026. Monitoring these drivers helps predict odds movement.
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