TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Time left: 13d:12h:25m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)
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Description
This event group tracks whether CME Gold (GC) futures will reach specific price thresholds by the end of June 2026. Markets are split into HIGH (at or above) and LOW (at or below) categories across multiple price points ranging from $3,400 to $10,000 per ounce. Resolution depends on the official CME settlement price for the Active Month contract reaching the specified level on any trading day through June 30, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
CME Group official settlement page for Gold (GC) futures - specifically the daily Settlement price for the Active Month (nearest designated delivery-cycle month: February, April, June, August, October, December that is not the spot month)Core resolution logic:
- HIGH markets resolve YES if CME settlement price for Active Month >= specified threshold on any trading day by June 30, 2026; otherwise NO
- LOW markets resolve YES if CME settlement price for Active Month <= specified threshold on any trading day by June 30, 2026; otherwise NO
- Only official CME-published settlement prices qualify; intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, and indicative prices do not count
- Settlement price is evaluated as first published by CME on the CME settlement page, regardless of any later corrections or updates
- Only trading days with CME-published settlement prices are included; weekends, holidays, and market closure days are ignored
- Active Month automatically changes on the contract's First Position Date to the next eligible delivery-cycle month
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Active Month Transition: When the Active Month changes on First Position Date, resolution continues using the new Active Month's settlement price for the remainder of the observation period through June 30, 2026
- Settlement Price Corrections: If CME publishes a correction to a settlement price after initial publication, the original published price (not the correction) is used for resolution
- Multiple Threshold Breaches: If price reaches threshold on multiple days, market resolves YES on the first day threshold is reached; subsequent breaches do not affect resolution
- Exact Threshold Match: HIGH markets resolve YES if price equals or exceeds threshold; LOW markets resolve YES if price equals or falls below threshold
- No Trading Days Before June 30: If no CME settlement price is published for Active Month between market creation and June 30, 2026, market resolves NO (threshold never reached)
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or after June 30, 2026, based on review of all CME settlement prices for the Active Month Gold futures contract from market creation (March 12, 2026) through the final trading day of June 2026Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders and reflect forward-looking sentiment about gold's trajectory. Unlike analyst forecasts, which are point estimates or ranges published at discrete intervals, market odds update continuously as new information arrives and trader conviction shifts. Markets often incorporate geopolitical risk, inflation expectations, and central bank policy faster than traditional analyst consensus. Comparing the two reveals whether professional forecasters are more or less bullish than the crowd, and whether gaps persist as the resolution date approaches.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Predict arise from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Polymarket shows 0.9% chance on its top outcome while Predict shows 12.1%, a spread of 11.2 percentage points. Variations stem from different trader demographics, arbitrage friction, platform incentives, and the timing of large orders. Lower liquidity on one venue can amplify price swings, while faster traders may exploit gaps before they close, keeping prices naturally divergent across venues.
The market resolves at Jun 30, 2026. The outcome is determined by whether gold's price reaches the specified threshold by that deadline. Resolution depends on the official price data source used by each platform, typically closing prices from major commodity exchanges. Traders should verify the exact price feed and time window each platform uses, as minor differences in data sources or timing conventions can affect the final result, especially if gold trades near the target level in the final hours.
Gold prices respond to US dollar strength, real interest rates, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions. Federal Reserve policy announcements, employment reports, and inflation prints are key catalysts. Central bank gold purchases or sales, currency crises, and trade conflicts can trigger sharp moves. Recession fears typically boost gold as a safe haven, while strong economic data and rising yields pressure prices lower. Unexpected political events or financial instability abroad can also drive sudden repricing. Traders should monitor economic calendars and policy signals closely through June.
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