TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Total volume:
$624,000
Volume 24h:
$5,243
2,973%
Liquidity:
$31,921
3%
Open interest:
$53,613
3%

Earbuds/Headphones

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

16%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 20¢ buys you 500 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $500 | Net Profit: $400 Multiplier: 5.00x | ROI: 400% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Earbuds/Headphones

Trade
16%
4%
Yes 20¢No 89¢
9¢
$840
$125,293
0.03%
0.06%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Earbuds/Headphones

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$67,841
0.38%
0.87%
$15,236
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12.9%
Yes 14¢No 91¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 9¢
polymarket

Glasses

Trade
12%
Yes 13¢No 89¢
2¢
$3,104
$69,462
0.13%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Glasses

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$18,580
0.65%
4%
$6,701
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.7%
Yes 10¢No 91.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

Clip-on device for clothing

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$1,042
$27,569
0%
0.26%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Clip-on device for clothing

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$32,342
0.16%
5%
$10,895
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.2%
Yes 10.5¢No 90.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Tablet

Trade
6%
Yes 6.4¢No 93.7¢
0.1¢
$4,174
$26,153
0.15%
0.44%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Tablet

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$2,605
0%
0%
$1,415
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6%
Yes 5.7¢No 94.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Computer (Laptop/Desktop)

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6.2¢No 94.7¢
0.9¢
$5,334
$45,059
0.26%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Computer

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$3,483
0.43%
1%
$2,216
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.6%
Yes 5.1¢No 95.9¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Watch

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$3,342
$43,975
0%
0.93%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Watch

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$4,845
0%
1%
$2,055
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.2%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Phone

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 96.6¢
1.3¢
$1,196
$62,392
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Phone

Trade
4%
Yes 6¢No 97¢
3¢
N/A
$18,338
16%
17%
$7,614
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 5.4¢No 96.8¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Ring

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
$4,520
$16,447
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Ring

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$4,818
0.02%
0.21%
$2,249
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 4.5¢No 97¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

Necklace

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4.3¢No 97¢
1.3¢
$6,446
$28,057
0.23%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Necklace

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$8,382
22%
22%
$3,778
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 3.7¢No 97.5¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 1.3¢
kalshi

Head-mounted display

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$3,485
2%
5%
$1,453
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Head-mounted display

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 98.8¢
1.3¢
$1,923
$14,873
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 3.3¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 1.3¢
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of OpenAI announcing specific consumer hardware products in 2026, ranging from clip-on devices to earbuds. Currently, the consensus probability of OpenAI announcing a clip-on device for clothing in 2026 is 18.0%, while the probability of earbuds or headphones being announced is 17.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from OpenAI regarding public announcements made before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Keep an eye on OpenAI’s planned product roadmap updates, as any announcements regarding hardware development could significantly shift these probabilities before the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are conditionally resolved based on the io collaboration and first-to-market status, while Polymarket markets resolve on any announcement.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are significantly more restrictive, tied to the io collaboration and first-to-market status. Polymarket markets are broader, resolving on *any* announcement. Consider focusing on Polymarket if you believe OpenAI will announce hardware outside of the io partnership.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if OpenAI announces any of the listed hardware products by December 31, 2026. Announcement is sufficient, release is not required. "The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' only if OpenAI's *first* hardware device, announced through the io collaboration, is one of the listed products before January 1, 2027. "If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is [device] before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on which hardware device type OpenAI announces first as part of its collaboration or acquisition of Jony Ive's io before January 1, 2027. A single device may fulfill multiple categories simultaneously (for example, a combined headphone-and-earbud product), in which case all applicable categories resolve to Yes. The announcement must be an official public disclosure of a device that OpenAI intends to develop or release; mere speculation or unconfirmed reports do not qualify. Each device category—Phone, Tablet, Computer, Glasses, Watch, Ring, Necklace, Clip-on device for clothing, Earbuds/Headphones, and Head-mounted display—is evaluated independently.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the OpenAI 2026 product market dashboard tracks the probability of various product announcements from OpenAI in the year 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $623,690, with $5,275 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in forecasting the next major innovation from OpenAI. The dashboard provides a consensus view derived from trading activity on both venues, allowing participants to gauge market sentiment and identify potential outcomes. This market reflects a diverse range of possibilities, from new AI models to hardware releases.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on internal research and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential insights. The current pricing suggests a collective assessment of OpenAI’s capabilities and strategic direction. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases. Analysts may be influenced by company narratives, while traders in this market focus on anticipating actual announcements. The volume of $623,690 in this market suggests a high degree of confidence in the collective prediction.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can occur due to variations in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules. Polymarket currently favors Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? at 15.5%, while Kalshi leans toward What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? at 9.0%. These differences in implied probabilities reflect the unique characteristics of each platform’s trading environment. Furthermore, varying levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform can contribute to divergent pricing. The 6.5 percentage point difference highlights the ongoing debate surrounding OpenAI’s future product roadmap.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether OpenAI makes a public announcement regarding a new product in 2026. Any official statement from OpenAI, including press releases, blog posts, or keynotes, will be considered as evidence. The focus is on a clearly defined, commercially available product, not simply research projects or internal prototypes. The outcome will be determined by a review of publicly available information to establish what was announced.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding research breakthroughs, partnerships, or strategic shifts would be key catalysts. Any leaks or rumors about upcoming products could also drive trading activity. Developments in the broader AI landscape, such as competitor product releases or regulatory changes, could influence market sentiment. Furthermore, statements from OpenAI executives or key personnel could provide valuable insights. A significant increase in volume, currently at $5,275, would also indicate growing conviction among traders regarding a specific outcome.