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Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
kalshi

What will Washington's aerospace manufacturing employment average be in 2026?

Aug 17, 2026, 9:00 PM EST - May 7, 2027, 11:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$639,010
Volume 24h:
$7
83%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$73,474
0%

Above 81,000 jobs

 - Kalshi

Above 81,000 jobs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves May 7, 2027

Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 6% 192 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 81,000 jobs

Trade
97%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$35,505
0%
0%
$1,322
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 80,000 jobs

Trade
97%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$896
0%
0%
$200
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 82,000 jobs

Trade
96%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$78,698
0%
44%
$7,042
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 83,000 jobs

Trade
92%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
N/A
$80,351
0%
N/A
$6,020
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 84,000 jobs

Trade
65%
Yes 66¢No 35¢
1¢
N/A
$66,637
0.01%
13%
$3,281
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 85,000 jobs

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 82¢
2¢
N/A
$59,265
0%
31%
$8,412
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 86,000 jobs

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$75,645
0%
44%
$8,468
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 87,000 jobs

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$92,417
0%
27%
$10,651
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 88,000 jobs

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$14,315
0%
16%
$3,710
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 89,000 jobs

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$54,117
0%
22%
$13,624
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 90,000 jobs

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$70,603
0%
7%
$4,324
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 91,000 jobs

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$10,279
0%
0%
$6,278
6mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 92,000 jobs

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$281
0%
0%
$140
6mo 1w 5d
active
Total markets: 13

Description

This event tracks the health and scale of Washington's aerospace manufacturing sector by monitoring its annual average employment levels in 2026. It reflects broader economic trends, industrial demand, and policy impacts on the state's key manufacturing industry. The outcome depends on official government data releases.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) officially published annual-average employment figure for Washington’s Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing sector (NAICS 3364) for the year 2026. Four separate thresholds are evaluated: 81,000; 82,000; 83,000; and 84,000 jobs. If the reported average exceeds any of these thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The determination uses the BLS’s final published annual-average value—subsequent revisions after the determination date will not alter the outcome. All markets share the same underlying data source and measurement methodology, focusing exclusively on the officially reported annual average for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Washington aerospace jobs market dashboard tracks the real-time odds and price history for the average aerospace manufacturing employment in Washington through 2026. You can also see the current 24-hour volume of $7 and total volume of $639,010, letting you gauge trader interest and market activity on this single venue.

Currently, this market implies a probability around 97.0% for its top outcome, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may weigh factors like federal contracts, defense spending bills, and workforce training programs differently than traders do. Comparing this market’s implied probability to recent reports from major economic research firms can reveal whether traders are more optimistic or pessimistic about Washington’s aerospace job trends through 2026.

This market resolves around May 7, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final average aerospace manufacturing employment figure for Washington in 2026 will be drawn from authoritative government labor statistics, ending all contracts based on that official number.

Key signals include major federal contract awards to Washington firms, changes in defense spending legislation, or shifts in aerospace company expansion plans. Natural disasters, supply chain disruptions, or significant workforce policy changes could also sway trader sentiment. Economic indicators like regional manufacturing PMIs and quarterly employment reports will continue to influence this market as 2026 approaches.