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$1,733,278,615

483,990

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3,349

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US x Cuba economic deal by...?
polymarket

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

Mar 13, 2026, 2:14 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$446,935
Volume 24h:
$130
424%
Liquidity:
$2,011
12%
Open interest:
$4,606N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

12%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 12¢ buys you 833 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $833 | Net Profit: $733 Multiplier: 8.33x | ROI: 733% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$2,011
$35,063
0.37%
0.67%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$183,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify . Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify . Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US-Cuba economic deal tracks the current probabilities assigned to whether a significant economic deal will be reached between the United States and Cuba. You’ll find the implied probabilities, a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $130. The total volume traded on this market to date is $446,935, indicating substantial interest in this geopolitical and economic question. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, the prediction market suggests a relatively low probability of a US-Cuba economic deal being finalized. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which range from cautiously optimistic to pessimistic depending on the current political climate and ongoing negotiations. While some experts believe warming relations could lead to increased trade, others point to existing political obstacles as significant barriers. It's important to note that this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, and may diverge from traditional expert opinions as new information emerges and is priced in.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders exchange positions, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of a deal. The current price indicates what percentage of the contract's face value a trader would pay to bet on the event happening before the resolution date.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the existence of a verifiable economic deal between the US and Cuba is confirmed through credible public reporting. The deal must represent a substantial shift in economic relations, going beyond minor adjustments to existing policies. The resolution will be based on publicly available information from reputable news sources and official government statements, and will focus on whether a comprehensive agreement has been reached and implemented.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in US or Cuban political leadership, changes in US policy towards Cuba, or breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations would all be key catalysts. Unexpected economic developments in either country, such as a significant trade opportunity or a financial crisis, could also influence the market. Additionally, any official announcements regarding the easing of trade restrictions or the establishment of new economic partnerships would likely cause a substantial movement in the probabilities reflected in this market.