TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Trump out as President by August 31?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump out as President by August 31?

Total volume:
$2,303,964
Volume 24h:
$169,806
141%
Liquidity:
$256,134
109%
Open interest:
$1,209
0.08%

Yes

 - Kalshi

Yes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 8, 2026

Time left: 11d:22h:06m

Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026?

2%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 2¢ buys you 5,000 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $5,000 | Net Profit: $4,900 Multiplier: 50.00x | ROI: 4,900% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yes

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$2,239
0.05%
12%
$1,209
1w 4d 22h
active
polymarket

Trump out as President by August 31?

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$256,134
$2,301,725
5%
24%
N/A
4d 8h 5m
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Donald Trump will cease to be the President of the United States by August 31, 2026. The resolution criteria differ significantly between Polymarket and Kalshi, focusing on different political events.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental scope divergence between presidential removal (Polymarket) and congressional resignations/expulsions (Kalshi)Hero tip: Do not hedge positions across these platforms as they resolve from entirely different political events. Trade based on your specific view of either presidential succession or congressional turnover in August 2026

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if Donald Trump permanently ceases to be President by August 31, 2026 through resignation, removal, or sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation. Temporary removals or impeachment without removal do not count.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any member of Congress resigns or is expelled as any member of Congress in August 2026, regardless of Donald Trump's presidential status.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

If any member of Congress resigns or is expelled as any member of Congress in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.